Terms And Conditions Of Employment. Variation Of Contract. Deductions

Terms And Conditions Of Employment. Variety Of Contract. Derivations From Wages Edmund Jonathan Carver Lent 2001 Business Law, HRM and TQM. Workshop Two: Terms and Conditions of Employment. Variety of Contract. Reasonings from compensation. Workers in the UK have had a legal right to composed points of interest of the terms of their work since 1963 (Contracts of Employment Act 1963) Current UK law regarding the matter is predominantly in the Employment Rights Act 1996 s.1. Pretty much every worker is qualified for a composed proclamation of the provisions of his business, which must be allowed inside two months of beginning of the work (ERA 1996). The announcement must incorporate subtleties, for example, personality of gatherings; date when time of constant business started; depiction of work; points of interest of renumeration and any terms re long periods of work, occasions and occasion pay in addition to other things. It is adequate for a portion of the points of interest to be in some different document(s) which the representative has sensible chances of perusing over the span of his work or which is made sensibly available to him in some other manner (ERA 1996,). Anyway this lone spreads terms identifying with debilitated compensation; benefits; disciplinary principles; or ?further activity? identifying with an intrigue against a disciplinary choice or an application for review of a complaint. Singular warning is expected of everything else in the agreement. The main individuals who can authorize an agreement are those gathering to it, for this situation the business and worker. In UK law, regardless of whether the provisions of an aggregate understanding are authoritative as between a specific boss and a specific worker relies upon the person's agreement of business. In the instances of Anderson v Pringle of Scotland Ltd 1998 IRLR 64, Court of Session; and South West Trains Ltd v Wightman and ors 1998 TLR fourteenth January 1998, non-legitimately official understandings among managers and worker's organizations had been joined as a lawfully restricting terms inside close to home business contracts. In the model given anyway the individual work contract didn't exist as a different element from the aggregate understanding Changes in existing terms of work are typically made in one of three different ways: (I) by concurrence with the employee(s), perhaps with a money sugar; (ii) by one-sided variety of agreement terms (or of works rules applied by the agreements); (iii) by giving expected notification to end existing agreements and offering new agreements. A business can't force a difference in wording without the representative's assent, changes as far as work must be advised to workers inside one month in spite of the fact that this doesn't present on the business any option to roll out such improvements. It is fundamental that workers are completely mindful of, and acknowledge, any negative changes to their terms of business if the progressions are to be legitimately official. Acknowledgment can some of the time be induced by the worker's lead e.g.: proceeding to work without protesting the change. On the off chance that a business singularly implements a variety in the terms of business, he revokes the agreement of business and the worker has the alternative of tolerating the break and leaving at that point making a case for valuable excusal, or continuing working and look for harms. Indeed, even where a business has written in the work contract a provision empowering one-sided changes to be made, such changes must be regarded sensible and a worker may at present have the option to guarantee productive excusal if the business rolls out noteworthy improvements. Regardless the business is obliged to refresh terms and conditions when they pull back from an agreement in any case the past agreement despite everything holds. Agreements may contain statements empowering a level of adaptability inside the terms of work, so that even extreme changes may at present exist part of the set of working responsibilities. Such changes may establish an end of the old agreement if the new terms are adequately unique, anyway there is extension for a level of vagueness. ?Changes ought to be talked about with representatives ahead of time. Inability to do so will ordinarily be absurd and be held against the business in any court or Tribunal procedures? www.emplaw.co.uk. All the above focuses to the way that James doesn't need to work the night move, on the off chance that he wishes to present an activity there are a few channels where he may look for review, ACAS might have the option to help in assertion as well as pacification. Falling flat or rather than this James may

Just a Minute Topic Essay Example

One moment Topic Essay Cell phones: A not really quiet executioner? Sunday, Jun 23, 2013, 8:42 IST | Agency: Daily Telegraph To certain researchers, theyre deadlier than cigarettes; to others theyre (generally) innocuous. Will we ever know reality with regards to cell phones? Julia Llewellyn Smith discovers. Illustrative picture DNA In 1996, Neil Whitfield, a team lead from Wigan, was given his first cell phone by his organization. It was presented as a pleasant, cuddly companion. It had the entirety of your mates contact subtleties on it. It was consistently in your pocket or squeezed against your ear, he says. Be that as it may, inside a short space of time Whitfield, a dad of six who was then in his late thirties, began enduring horrible migraines. At that point my hearing weakened and I continued overlooking things, which dislike me. An output uncovered he had an acoustic neuroma an uncommon mind tumor that develops on a nerve in the cerebrum close to the ear. Without medical procedure, he was told, he had five years to live. The master inquired as to whether I utilized a versatile a great deal. At the point when I said indeed, he answered: Mobiles will be the indisputable evidence of the 21st century. He planted a seed in my psyche. Whitfield, presently 56, is one of a developing and vociferous gathering of individuals who are persuaded that cell phones are slaughtering us. A telephone, they bring up, alongside cordless telephones and Wi-Fi, works similarly as a little microwave, discharging electromagnetic radiation. As a matter of fact, this radiation is at too low a recurrence to war m human tissue, however theres a lot of proof that it could influence the defensive obstruction between the mind and blood, permitting poisons to enter. We will compose a custom paper test on Just a Minute Topic explicitly for you for just $16.38 $13.9/page Request now We will compose a custom article test on Just a Minute Topic explicitly for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Recruit Writer We will compose a custom article test on Just a Minute Topic explicitly for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Recruit Writer There is additionally proof that mobiles could be harming our safe frameworks, lessening sperm motility and causing tumors, Alzheimers, strokes and mental imbalance. Its people like Whitfield who accept this, yet various prominent researchers and doctors. Two years prior, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), an office of the World Health Organization, distributed a report, renaming radiation from mobiles from class 3, with no indisputable proof of influencing disease, to classification 2b a potential human cancer-causing agent alongside diesel fumes, chloroform, stream fuel, lead and DDT. In October, the Italian Supreme Court decided that a businessmans cerebrum tumor was brought about by his utilization of a portable for five or six hours every day for a long time, making ready for a potential host of legitimate activities from representatives against bosses. However bodies like Cancer Research UK guarantee me not to stress. We think its unimaginably far-fetched theres any connection among telephones and disease, with the slight admonition its a moderately new innovation so we cannot make certain of any drawn out impacts, says Sarah Williams, senior wellbeing data and proof official. To the layman, the science behind the entirety of this is mind-numbingly intricate. For practically every affirmation of hazard, theres another declaring no hazard. None of the examination has been definitive. At the point when we do a meta-investigation, all things considered, theres no unmistakable impact in either heading. The examinations that show telephones dont cause malignant growth are offset by considers that show they do, says Williams. The counter portable anteroom oppose this idea. They refer to the preparatory standard a legal prerequisite in EU law that essentially can be deciphered as: new innovation is liable until demonstrated guiltless. Until more research is done and telephones have been when all is said in done utilize longer, they express its preferable to be protected over heartbroken. Official exhortation from the NHS is to restrict our versatile use in the event that we need to keep away from introduction to radio waves. Youngsters specifically should just utilize them in crises, in such a case that there is any hazard, their more slender skulls and creating minds would make them substantially more helpless against potential harm. Different nations have made this a stride further. France has restricted all cell phone promoting focused on under-12s, while enactment is being acquainted with make it necessary to sell all telephones with headphones. Canada and Russia have likewise prompted alert and the Israeli government is thinking about printing wellbeing admonitions on telephones, as on cigarette bundles. In the interim, a few nations are actualizing or considering a complete boycott of Wi-Fi in schools. So what is the reality of the situation? Are mobiles extremely perilous? There is no doubt that a portion of those sounding the alert have a place with that subset of mankind who see schemes wherever they look. In any case, examining the subject, it turned out to be obvious to me that the contentions against telephones are not all the results of jumpy personalities. A long way from it. The truth of the matter is, taking into account how broad telephones are (more than 5. 3 billion mobiles are being used out of a worldwide populace of 7 billion) anything that demonstrated they were risky would be an exceptionally badly designed truth. Cell phones is an issue we as a whole cover our heads in the sand about, affirms Denis Henshaw, teacher of material science and leader of the Human Radiation Effects bunch at Bristol University. The principal cell phone innovation was turned out without actually any thought for the drawn out impacts, much the same as asbestos and smoking. The administration rounds up billions from the innovation, in charges from the cell phone organizations and permitting of the systems. The new age truly doesnt need to think about any potential sick impacts. Think about the tobacco organizations says the counter telephone anteroom who covered the threats of smoking and the addictiveness of nicotine and bolstered their situation with various beguiling investigations. Or on the other hand asbestos makers who shrouded proof that the mineral was perilous despite the fact that a huge number of laborers were biting the dust from introduction. Mobiles are a multi-trillion-dollar industry, considerably greater than pharmaceuticals, and with a sizeable campaigning arm. Almost every investigation that is demonstrated mobiles to be protected has been supported by the business, however researchers associated with such examinations bring up reserves are generally dispersed by unbiased bodies, so they have no chance to get of knowing the source. Researchers whove found disappointing proof have spoken about dangers being given to expel financing and constrain put on businesses to sack them. Yet, simultaneously, researchers blamed for being in cahoots with large business are angry. Anthony Swerdlow, teacher of the study of disease transmission at the Institute of Cancer Research, headed a years ago International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) report into versatile wellbeing, closing there was no reasonable proof mobiles compromised general wellbeing. On the web, I discover a wide range of assaults extending from allegations that Swerdlow has shares in the portable business (he has a couple of offers in BT) and doesnt own a versatile (he does). Where researchers do have a lot of personal responsibility is in finding the solutions directly quite far, he says. Our drawn out vocations depend not on cash from the telephone business yet on having a notoriety and reputation for doing great science and making sound logical decisions. On the off chance that researchers lead poor examinations or make one-sided decisions, they hurt their notorieties and harm their professions. While looking into this article, word contacted me from unbiased wells prings of respectable researchers whose examination had driven them to prohibiting their youngsters from utilizing mobiles and a nervous system specialist who would not lay down with her telephone charging in the room since she was persuaded the electromagnetic fields radiated by mobiles were liable for the rising umber of strokes she was seeing. However, they didnt react to my messages or calls. It is safe to say that they are hesitant to communicate their questions openly on the grounds that they depend on the business to furnish them with information, or on the grounds that without hard proof to help them they dont need to be named nut case? The core of the discussion holds tight whether this radiation can harm cells. The professional portable hall stress that ionic radiation is related with disease since it can break biochemical bonds in the body. A mobiles electromagnetic radiation, then again, has too low frequencies and too powerless a sign to have the option to warm human ti ssue and harm DNA atoms. Be that as it may, many oppose this idea. In 1975, preceding mobiles were created, US neuroscientist Allan Frey amazed established researchers with a paper depicting his work on the blood-mind boundary, the essential defensive layer between the cerebrum and our blood flexibly. The hindrance is defensive to such an extent that ordinarily when blue color is infused into creatures or people, the body turns blue while the mind remains its characteristic, dim shading. Be that as it may, in Freys tests, microwaves beat at specific tweaks sent color spilling into rodents cerebrums in no time. Rodents have fundamentally the same as minds to people. This would imply that the cerebrums condition, which should be very steady for nerve cells to work appropriately, can be annoyed in a wide range of risky ways and presented to poisons. Ensuing exploration has extended and intensified this work. Individuals state theres no conceivable natural theory for how electromagnetic radiation can harm cells well represent yourself, says Prof Henshaw, who is a consultant to Mobilewise, a gathering that issues security direction to kids. Research is moving so quick, I get five to 10 papers per day on the impacts of radiofrequency. We dont know it all. Prof Henshaw doesn't concur that essential DNA harm is expected to cause malignant growth. He refers to examination into magnetite precious stones, that are found in the human cerebrum. Electromagnetic radiation is appeared to genuinely vibrate these particles and theres theory this could make cells think theyre enduring an onslaught. Theyll th ink that its unpleasant and this could influence the system and we realize that a few malignant growths are ca

7 Tips for Caregivers to Relieve Stress

7 Tips for Caregivers to Relieve Stress Many caregivers have trouble taking care of their own needs as they provide so much care for the needs of others. Whether you feel guilty for taking time out for yourself, or if you just feel like you don’t have the time to take, consider this perspective: If you don’t take care of yourself, you won’t have anything left to give. How Being a Caregiver Can Be Very Stressful How Caregivers Can Lessen Stress and Overwhelm The following steps can help you to minimize some of the stress you’re feeling, so you can feel less overwhelmed by the caregiver role. Stay connected. It’s important to maintain relationships with other people, not just the person you’re caring for or your immediate family. Others, especially those who are in a similar position, can provide support and information, as well as valuable opportunities to step out of the caregiver role for a while. Aim to find a mix of social support from online support groups, friends with whom you may have lost touch as you’ve gotten busier, and new friends you may meet in the community. Even walking a dog around your neighborhood provides some of the health benefits of pets and can help you stay more connected to your neighbors and community.Accept help. If help is offered by friends, neighbors, and others, don’t be afraid to accept it. Many people don’t know what to do to help, but are sincere in their offers of, If theres anything I can do. Just think of what would really help you and tell themâ€"it may make them feel much better being able to lighten your load, so don’ t feel guilty about it. If you’re not getting many offers of support, you may want to ask family members if they might be able to offer some. Also, there may be resources offered in your community, so some research in that area may yield some useful results. Sometimes even a little help can go a long way.Find time alone. It may be difficult for you to find time alone, especially if you’re the sole provider of care, but don’t forget that you need to give to yourself in order to have the ability to give to others. However, taking an hour or two for journaling in a coffee shop, seeing a movie by yourself, getting exercise with a long walk, or going to a nearby park and immersing yourself in a good book are all excellent, restorative options that can help you to stave off burnout.Maintain a hobby. It’s also important to keep up some interests outside of your role as a caregiver. Maintaining a hobby is a way to keep yourself feeling fresh and vital, and possibly to stay connected with others in another role. Here is a list of stress-relieving hobbies to consider, some of which can be maintained at home with your loved one, along with some that will take you outside and connect you with others.Stay informed. While sometimes looking conditions up on the internet yield questionable or even unsettling results, it’s still often a good idea to research as much as you can about your loved one’s condition, so that you’ll know what to expect. To be sure that you’re getting accurate information, talk to your doctor about good resources for information and support.Stay spiritually grounded. Studies show that religion and spirituality can help immensely with stress relief, health, and life satisfaction, so if you have are religious or have spiritual leanings, now is a good time to rely on them, and gain strength from your faith as well as your spiritual community.Take care of yourself. The main idea here is to take good care of yourselfâ€"physically, mentally, and emotionallyâ€"so that you’ll be able to handle the challenges of caregiving, and continue to provide care for others. Self-care  encompasses many  ideas, including getting enough sleep, eating a quality diet, and other strategies to keep yourself feeling well. Also, if you experience persistent feelings of fatigue, resentment, or burnout, don’t be afraid to talk to a professional and get some extra support.

Double Consciousness as Defined by Du Bois in The Souls...

Double consciousness as defined by Du Bois in The Souls of Black Folk: It is a peculiar sensation, this double-consciousness, this sense of always looking at ones self through the eyes of others, of measuring ones soul by the tape of a world that looks on in amused contempt and pity. (The Souls of Black Folk, pp.453-470) harkens to the double consciousness felt by Lae Choo in In the land of the Free by Sui Sin Far. Like Du Bois, Far illustrates through the personal experiences of the characters the way whites saw people of color and how they were treated as a result of it. The color line as mentioned in The Souls of Black Folk is something universal when it comes to white and non white interactions. Regardless of race, non whites were treated with prejudice by whites and made to suffer through hardships because of their non white status. Both sbook discuss the theme of struggle and hardship through racial difference that leads to change and reflection. Although differing in setting, protagonists, and layout, share the same kind of pain that is universal regardless of race, gender, and age. In terms of style and content, because the two books were written for different purposes they will have differences, especially in perspective since Du Bois wrote it about himself and his point of view where as Sin Sui Far wrote about a made up character. In this essay the connection between the two books will be explained along with the universal themes of color line andShow MoreRelatedBlack Folk Analysis On The Double Consciousness Theory Essay908 Words   |  4 Pages Re-examining W.E.B Du Bois’ Souls of Black Folk analysis on the double consciousness theory INTRODUCTION: In 1903 the brilliant historican and sociologist W.E.B Du Bois’ introduced his theory known as the Double-Conciousness in Souls of Black Folk Bois provides his readers with insight on the treatment of people of color, and supports this notion by giving personal examples of his experiences. He writes with the hope that many will understand the diffculty of having to be obtain two personalitiesRead MoreB. Du Bois Essay1447 Words   |  6 PagesW.E.B. Du Bois was a major force in twentieth-century society, whose aim in life was to help define African-American social and political causes in the United States. History writes that W.E.B. Du Bois was a sociologist, historian, civil rights activist, and Pan-Africanist. However, white people who feared him labeled him a trouble maker and some black people saw him as an outcast. No matter what Du Bois’s critics thought about him, Du Bois was the voice of African-American fight for equality. AsRead MoreDouble Consciousness an d the Stranger Essay1565 Words   |  7 PagesB. Du Bois have had a significant influence on important theories and ideas developed in the Social Sciences. Perhaps two of the most relevant and well-known concepts developed by both of these theorists are the concepts of â€Å"double consciousness† and â€Å"the stranger†. In this paper I will be analyzing both of these pieces of work to draw upon differences and similarities between the two. The similarities I will be elaborating on are the usage of the paradoxical figure, which both Simmel and Du BoisRead MoreCritically Assess Du Bois s Conception Of Double Consciousness1862 Words   |  8 PagesCritically assess Du Bois’s conception of double consciousness. Can double consciousness be dissolved and, if so, how? This essay will firstly outline exactly what the Du Boisian concept of double consciousness is, before critically assessing Du Bois’s thoughts and evaluate if his theory of double consciousness is something which can be dissolved. I will look at some objections to Du Bois’s double consciousness, paying particular attention to Reed’s complaints of historical contingency. It willRead MoreEmile Durkheim s Sociology And The Implications Of Sociology1733 Words   |  7 PagesThese obligations may include roles such as father, citizen, teacher, believer, etc. In relation to history, social facts have been one of the main perpetrators of the slave period of American history (1619-1865). As explained in The Souls of Black Folk by W.E.B Du Bois, social facts continue even today to wreak havoc on the development of African Americans in a largely white society. The significance of the problematic development of African American people in the United States cannot be diminut izedRead MoreSociological Theories Of Prejudice And Racism1645 Words   |  7 Pagesor model) of how such discrimination might occur and what its effects might be. The theory or model, in turn, specifies the data that are needed to test the theory, appropriate methods for analyzing the data, and the assumptions that the data and analysis must satisfy in order to support a finding of discrimination. Without such a theory, analysts may conduct studies that do not have interpretable results and do not stand up to rigorous scrutiny. The purpose of this chapter is to help researchersRead MoreThe Souls Of Black Folks1486 Words   |  6 PagesThoughts and emotions are derived from our own sense of consciousness, or our own self-awareness. It is what comes to shape our identities. Some of us have one conciseness, but many of us have two. This is because many of us have suffered at the hands of others. Not suffering that comes from physical touch. This is suffering that comes from psychological abuse. The kind of suffering that grinds our mind and makes us question who we are. I, like most, have always felt I was living two livesRead More The Perception of African Americans in the Media and How it Affects Their Self-Identity3877 Words   |  16 Pageshelped to unify and give voice to a small minority group. The role of the media in the social identity of African Americans According to the United States Census Bureau (2001), 12.3% of all people reporting as one race reported they were â€Å"Black or African American†. This ethnic identity is now the second biggest minority in the United States. It also refers to a group of people who have been in this country for as long as it has existed. However, through the persecution of slavery, the rigorsRead MoreRastafarian79520 Words   |  319 Pagesintentionally left blank Foreword One of the most useful things about Ennis Edmondss Rastafari: From Outcasts to Culture Bearers is that it correctly traces the connection between the emergence of Rastafarianism and the history of resistance and black consciousness that has been part of the Jamaican experience for years. The truth is that there has always been a committed Jamaican counter- culture that celebrates and sees redemption in Africa and rejects the European values that have oppressed a society

Examples and Definition of Discourse Domain in Speech

In sociolinguistics, the term discourse domain refers to features or conventions of language use determined by the context in which communication takes place. A discourse domain typically includes a variety of registers. Also known as  cognitive discourse domain, discourse world, and knowledge map. A discourse domain can be understood as a  social construct as well as a cognitive construct. A discourse domain is made up of individuals who exhibit their own distinctive knowledge structures, cognitive styles, and biases. However, within the boundaries of a domain, there is continual interaction between domain structures and individual knowledge, an interaction between the individual and the social level (Hjà ¸rland and Albrechtsen, Toward a New Horizon in Information Science, 1995). See Examples and Observations below. Also, see: Cognitive LinguisticsConversation AnalysisDiscourseLinguistic VariationPragmaticsSpeech Community Examples and Observations Along the lines of what Wittgenstein called (2009) language games and Levinson (1979) labelled activity types,  discourse domains are  frameworks for conduct that organize participants verbal and non-verbal comportment around  recognized modes of activity grounded in shared norms, purposes and goals. Relevant activities include playing tennis, having an academic debate, or going on a walk with a dog—in short, activities that involve interacting with one or more human or non-human others in a particular setting and for specific kinds of reasons. -(Daniel Herman, Building More-Than-Human Worlds.  World Building: Discourse in the Mind, ed. by Joanna Gavins and Ernestine Lahey. Bloomsbury, 2016) These are some domain contextual examples (Based on Hymes, 1974; Gumperz, 1976; Douglas Selinker, 1985a): physical: setting, participants;phonological: voice tone, pitch, tempo, rhythm, volume;semantic: code, topic;rhetorical: register, style, genre;pragmatic: purpose, interactional salience;paralinguistic: posture, gesture, gaze, facial expression. The above list is not intended to be exhaustive and there are no doubt other types of contextualization cues, but it does give the reader a sense of the types of information available to language learners/users in communication situations. -Dan Douglas, Discourse Domains: The Cognitive Context of Speaking. Studying Speaking to Inform Second Language Learning, ed. by Diana Boxer and Andrew D. Cohen. Multilingual Matters, 2004 Contexts and Discourse Domains [A] discourse domain is a cognitive construct created in response to a number of factors, including semantic category, but also to other features of situational and linguistic context. For example, when we enter a room where a conversation is going on, we of course pay attention to the topic of the talk, but we also take note of a number of other features of the situation, including the physical setting, who the participants are, what the purpose of their conversation appears to be, whether the conversation seems to be businesslike, friendly, or angry, what features of language the participants are using, and what relationship they appear to have with each other. Depending upon our analysis of the situation in terms such as these, we might feel that this is a situation we are familiar with and would feel comfortable joining; in other words, as Douglas and Selinker would say, we possess a discourse domain for dealing with this communication situation... [D]iscourse domains are developed or engaged in response to signals in the situational and linguistic environment which interlocutors attend to in interpreting (indeed, creating) context. -Dan Douglas, Discourse Domains: The Cognitive Context of Speaking. Studying Speaking to Inform Second Language Learning, ed. by Diana Boxer and Andrew D. Cohen. Multilingual Matters, 2004 The Discourse Domain of Higher Education All persons involved in formal education at some point find themselves participating in various sorts of encounters, including less formal interactions in small groups—in laboratories, study groups, or colloquia. It is important to know how to display oneself as intellectually competent, and this is done more often than not through face-to-face interactions...How to utilize powerful speech behaviors without presenting oneself as arrogant involves a careful dance of negotiation. Joking, teasing, challenging, asking questions and commenting, getting and holding the floor—these are all important phenomena of face-to-face discourse in higher education... The discourse domain of education is one that everyone experiences. As an increasing number of citizens seek a higher education, it becomes ever more critical to understand how to negotiate relationships in this domain of interaction. The stakes are high. -Diana Boxer, Applying Sociolinguistics: Domains and Face-to-Face Interaction. John Benjamins, 2002 Story-Telling as a Discourse Domain There are clear reports that have shown that storytelling as a particular discourse domain is an activity that follows a well-delineated line of development within the mainstream culture. From very early on mother and child engage in an interaction format that resembles a book reading activity in the sense that both participants engage in a labeling game of more or less decontextualized units (cf. Ninio Bruner 1978; Ninio 1980). The capacity to label is not only a necessary prerequisite for the joint storytelling activity, it is also an activity that is propagated and embellished with short picture book-like stories that develop into more complicated narrations in the course of the pre-school years. -Michael G. W. Bamberg, The Acquisition of Narratives: Learning to Use Language. Mouton de Gruyter, 1987

Stress Management Among Working Womens in India Free Essays

Stress refers to the pressure and reactions to our environment which results inpsychological and physical reactions. Whilst some stress is good for motivationand increasing efficiency, too much stress can result in negative impacts such asreduced effectiveness and efficiency. More and more people are feeling isolatedand disrespected at work, and this has led to greater occupational stress. We will write a custom essay sample on Stress Management Among Working Womens in India or any similar topic only for you Order Now Manycompanies have taken to consulting experts and professionals on ways toincrease connectedness and motivation of their employees. Some companies organize parties and make their employees feel valued atwork. These are measures to motivate employees and help them to feel secureat their jobs, translating into greater productivity. However, not all companieshave such measures in place, and some have not gotten it quite right. Hence, itis up to you to make sure that you can cope with stress at your workplace, anduse it to help you work better. Here are 3 simple steps to help you with copingwith stress in the workplace. Step 1: Raising Awareness Help yourself to identify when you are facing rising levels of stress, tipping thescales from positive to negative. This is important, as being able to identify signsof being stressed can help you to take steps to ensure that your overall quality of life does not drop. If left unacknowledged, the problem will only snowball, leadingto disastrous consequences to your health and overall wellbeing. You can identify if you are feeling stressed by checking if you have any physicalor psychological reactions, such as excessive sweating or heart palpitations, or the onset of headaches, irritability or the need to escape. If you experience anyof these reactions, identify if you are feeling any overwhelming negativeemotions, and if you are constantly worried. Step 2: Identify the Cause You need to be able to analyze the situation and identify what is causing the risein stress. These stressors can be external and internal. External stressors refer 18 to things beyond your control, such as the environment or your colleagues atwork. Internal stressors refer to your own thinking and attitude. Often, we onlystart reacting to stress when a combination of stressors working together exceeds our ability to cope. Keep a diary or a list of events that have caused you to feel strong negativeemotions, or that are likely stressors. This will help you to identify the causes of your stress. Whilst it is not always possible to eradicate them, we can change theway that we cope with it. Step 3: Coping with Stress In order to deal with the situation that is causing you stress, you need to calmyour mind and body so as to stave off the reactions and cope with it in a positiveway. This can be through different methods, such as taking time off. If a situationis triggering your stress and you are unable to calm down, remove yourself fromit. Go outside and take a walk to calm down. Alternatively, you can tryimplementing relaxation techniques such as deep breathing. If it is an internalstressor, stop your thought process until you are able to deal with it logically. The key to making these 3 steps work for you is to practice them. These are notinstantaneous solutions, and you need to condition your mind and practice themso that you can implement it when you are feeling stressed. (1. 2. 5) Stress Management Stress management is the need of the hour. However hard we try to gobeyond a stress situation, life seems to find new ways of stressing us out andplaguing us with anxiety attacks. Moreover, be it our anxiety, mind-bodyexhaustion or our erring attitudes, we tend to overlook causes of stress and theconditions triggered by those. In such unsettling moments we often forget thatstressors, if not escapable, are fairly manageable and treatable. 19 Stress, either quick or constant, can induce risky body-mind disorders. Immediate disorders such as dizzy spells, anxiety attacks, tension,sleeplessness, nervousness and muscle cramps can all result in chronic healthproblems. They may also affect our immune, cardiovascular and nervoussystems and lead individuals to habitual addictions, which are inter-linked withstress. Like â€Å"stress reactions†, â€Å"relaxation responses† and stress managementtechniques are some of the body’s important built-in response systems. As arelaxation response the body tries to get back balance in its homeostasis. Somehormones released during the ‘fight or flight’ situation prompt the body to replacethe lost carbohydrates and fats, and restore the energy level. The knottednerves, tightened muscles and an exhausted mind crave for looseness. Unfortunately, today, we don’t get relaxing and soothing situations withoutasking. To be relaxed we have to strive to create such situations. Recognizing a stressor: It is important to recognize whether you are under stress or out of it. Many times,even if we are under the influence of a stressful condition and our body reacts toit internally as well as externally, we fail to realize that we are reacting under stress. This also happens when the causes of stress are there long enough for us to get habituated to them. The body constantly tries to tell us throughsymptoms such as rapid palpitation, dizzy spells, tight muscles or various bodyaches that something is wrong. It is important to remain attentive to suchsymptoms and to learn to cope with the situations. 20 How to cite Stress Management Among Working Womens in India, Essay examples

Introduction Customer Relationship Management-Samples for Students

Question: Les Mills New Zealand Les Mills is a New Zealand owned fitness chain whose stated purpose is to improve the lives of New Zealanders. There are several parts to Les Mills fitness, including Les Mills Gyms, Les Mills New Zealand and Les Mills International. The Les Mills International system is complex and dynamic. You will be required to describe and apply management principles covered in the course. Answer: Introduction Les Mills is a New Zealand based fitness chain. In 1968, Les Mills began its operations in Auckland. Currently, the company is associated with 12 fitness gyms in New Zealand and has approximately 17, 500 licensed partners in 100 nations (Andreasson Johansson, 2016). Phillip Mills, the founder of the organization, is recognized for his special role in developing an effective approach to choreography, group workouts, instructor training, and using music to achieve a motivational and safe workout experience for all customers. Les Mills creates opportunities for both individual and group workout programs and also offers leasing space for supporting businesses such as beauty stores and nutrition shops. Other sources of income for Les Mills include offering licenses to non-associated gyms, as well as selling Les Mills products. The prime mission of Les Mills is to create a fit and healthy world. Organizational culture Through team building and effective communication strategies, Les Mills has been able to build a strong team and a positive organizational culture. Notably, each employee is given a book which describes the organizational culture at Les Mills. This book acts as an effective communication channel which enlightens the employees about what is expected from them. The book further describes the mission, philosophy, and team environment of the organization. Les Mills is determined to listen to employees grievances, feedbacks, and opinions. By doing so, Les Mills is able to foster a collaborative working environment that supports the growth of the staff and business. Evidently, the company is willing to work with risk takers and innovators who aim to create a fit and healthy world. Through effective communication and team building, Les Mills employees are able to work as one tribe united by the core purpose of changing the planet. By 2020, the company intends to achieve a billion dollar status. In order to achieve this, the company aims to keep all employees well informed (Macnamara Zerfass, 2012). Les Mills constantly informs its employees about online collaborations, staff meetings, conference calls, training sessions, and e-newsletters. Staff satisfaction Effective communication and team building strategies ensure that the employees are satisfied. Les Mills conducts annual reviews to determine the performance of each employee. The annual review aims to create objectives and encourage constructive feedback. It should be noted, however, that this review is not connected to the salary review. The Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) explain more about individual performance. Therefore, the employees can relate their performance to the business outcomes (Dyer Dyer, 2013). KPIs create a platform where employees can achieve their goals while reporting, standardizing, and measuring performance (Sekaran Bougie, 2016). Also, Les Mills seeks to build a contented team by re-investing in them. A three percent of every employees salary is re-invested into their training. At each level, the group fitness instructors undergo vigorous training. Les Mills also offers a platform for leadership development. Potential leaders from all organizational areas and levels are given tools and resources they need to meet the values and expectations of the company. Customer satisfaction The companys customers range from 18 to 35 years of age who acknowledge the importance of group fitness. Most customers are confident, self-driven and live or work close to the gym. The loyal, engaged, and motivated team of instructors at Les Mills ensures the customers are always satisfied. The managers communicate to their team of instructors about the companys vision and goals. This helps to create energized and great teams capable of delivering outstanding results (Van Vaerenbergh, Larivire Vermeir, 2012). The impact of the good communication and team building approaches is a contented customer base. Les Mills also ensures that the customers are satisfied by providing a social workout experience. The social experience is coupled with motivated instructors, music, and technology. The wall-screens and innovative equipment at Les Mills provide a fun and positive mindset for its customers. Les Mills adds flavor to its world class brand by seeking endorsement from celebrities. The celebrities act as a communication channel through which customers are informed and convinced to use the brand (Shockley-Zalabak, 2014). This definitely plays a special role in improving customer satisfaction. The customers share the feeling and pride of being associated with a world class brand. Moreover, Les Mills adopts Customer Relationship Management (CRM) strategies to create and maintain a good relationship with its customers. Evidently, the company compares and takes lessons from the best global companies, even if they are not related to the industry. The management relays this information to the staff who in turn use it to provide the best training to customers. This paper clearly illustrates the role communication and team work strategies play towards achieving a positive culture and ensuring the customers and employees are contented. References Van Vaerenbergh, Y., Larivire, B., Vermeir, I. (2012). The impact of process recovery communication on customer satisfaction, repurchase intentions, and word-of-mouth intentions.Journal of Service Research,15(3), 262-279. Sekaran, U., Bougie, R. (2016).Research methods for business: A skill building approach. John Wiley Sons. Andreasson, J., Johansson, T. (2016). Doing for group exercise what McDonald's did for hamburgers: Les Mills, and the fitness professional as global traveller.Sport, Education and Society,21(2), 148-165. Dyer, W. G., Dyer, J. H. (2013).Team building: Proven strategies for improving team performance. John Wiley Sons. Shockley-Zalabak, P. (2014).Fundamentals of organizational communication. Pearson. Macnamara, J., Zerfass, A. (2012). Social media communication in organizations: The challenges of balancing openness, strategy, and management.International Journal of Strategic Communication,6(4), 287-308.

Examine the presentation of Claudius in Act 1 Essay Example

Examine the presentation of Claudius in Act 1 Paper William Shakespeares Hamlet is a play of deceit, hypocrisy and most importantly revenge. The play is written in Shakespearean language, and is one of Shakespeares many classics. There are a few main characters in this play, which consist of Hamlet, Gertrude and Ophelia, but the character in question here is Claudius. Shakespeare, who is most famous for his creation of characters, which seem like real people, has portrayed Claudius as astute, cunning, but yet accomplished in a sense. The audience seem to make an immediate judgement of Claudius after Act ( scene ? as Shakespeare uses Claudiuss first speech to out line his character. Claudiuss first speech is very important and reflects his character and also the play. It primarily is about betrayal, incest, marriage and death. He talks about war, his newly beloved wife, his valiant brothers funeral, the Prince of Norway and Laertes. Shakespeares technique here uses a lot of juxtaposition mixed with alliteration for this speech. The main one is when Claudius is talking about Gertrude he says sometime sister which portrays incest. This is a very interesting choice of language because it has a double meaning. We will write a custom essay sample on Examine the presentation of Claudius in Act 1 specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Examine the presentation of Claudius in Act 1 specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Examine the presentation of Claudius in Act 1 specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer One being Claudius trying to say after Hamlet Seniors death he is in no way related to Gertrude. But when read into more detail he could have also said this to show the audience, incest. Alliteration and juxtaposition has been used again, when the ghost talks about Claudius, he says, A serpent stung me. This an excellent choice of juxtaposition as it makes the audience very curious. This is because the audience want to know how the King died, and also gets the audience thinking, because a serpent does not sting it bites. The alliteration here is again the sss sound. This is the sound of a snake, and a snake represents evil. There is one other occasion when Claudius is referred to as an animal, is when hamlet is doing a soliloquy and he says Hyperion to a satyr. This shows Hamlets sarcasm towards Claudius and also means Claudius is very hasty. Again in line 10 he uses juxtaposition. Defeated joy, is the term that is used here and Shakespeare has used this here because it is a shortened explanation of the next few lines. Here is a very important quote when Claudius says, With mirth in funeral and dirge in marriage which is exactly what he was talking about when he said defeated joy. This quote is basically showing how everyone is feeling, because one side of them is happy for Claudius and Gertrude getting married, and the other side till a certain extent they are still mourning the great kings death. In a sense just this little part of the speech already shows the link to the country with the king, and also shows how respected and powerful the king is, but also how conniving he is because he very cleverly moves on from Hamlet Seniors death to his marriage with Gertrude in the speech. Another very interesting line from the king is line 64 where again juxtaposition is used, but this time in a sentence, But now, my cousin Hamlet, and my son. This is a very good contradiction as he is trying to say, just because he is married to Gertrude, he is also Hamlets father. Shakespeare very cleverly shows this as it sums up Claudius in a sentence. It shows the king to be manipulative, and powerful. There are a few other techniques used in this speech. Body politic is used in line 4 where Claudius says brow of woe. Which shows he is a little bit upset because of his brothers death and this little sentence sums up everything. Repetition is another technique used by Shakespeare, where Claudius is talking to Hamlet about his father. The two words that are repeated three times are, father and lost. Shakespeare has used this technique to make Claudius emphasis his point. These few sentences are very important as they show another side to Claudius, the devious side. At first his care towards Hamlet is thought to be conscientious, as he tries very hard to stop hamlet from grieving and tries to show him its the course of nature. However, later on he says tis a fault to heaven, a fault against the dead, a fault to nature. This is Claudius trying to say it is a sin to grieve so much, not only to your father, but also to God, to the dead, and to nature. This is where the audience see the real side to him, which is vile and selfish. The structure of Claudiuss first speech can be broken down into five main parts. Shakespeare starts him off by talking about the death of Hamlet Senior, and his funeral. A few sentences after that he moves on to talking about marriage. For a speech that is over a 100 lines long, talking about the funeral for about 5 lines must mean the death does not mean a lot to him as he doesnt have a lot to say about it. Shakespeare has presented him like this to make him hated by the audience and can in a way be seen as a villain. After talking about the marriage he moves on to war and politics, and talks about Fortinbras and war with Norway, which shows his power and respect. Then he moves onto Laertes, and he asks him for any wish he will grant. This again portrays his power. Finally he moves onto hamlet. He explains why he thinks Hamlet should not go to his university. He says comfort of our eye this again is ironic because the audience see him as being caring but this quote could also mean they want to keep an eye on him. Here Claudius is speaking on behalf of him and Gertrude but is actually talking about himself. In conclusion Claudius, has been presented as cunning, desperate, in a sense clever, very respected and powerful. His character also comes across as the manipulative type, and always gets what he wants and if he doesnt would go to extreme measures to get it. The repetition and the body politic in this speech is fewer than the juxtaposition and the alliteration. I think Shakespeares combination of juxtaposition and alliteration work exquisitely together and the effects are substantial.

Definition and Examples of Writers Block

Definition and Examples of Writers Block    Writers block is a condition in which a skilled writer with the desire to write finds herself unable to write. The expression writers block was coined and popularized by American psychoanalyst Edmund Bergler in the 1940s.In other ages and cultures, says Alice Flaherty in The Midnight Disease, writers were not thought to be blocked but straightforwardly dried up. One literary critic points out that the concept of writers block is peculiarly American in its optimism that we all have creativity just waiting to be unlocked.See Examples and Observations below. Also see: 12 Quick Tips for Beating Writers BlockWriters on Writing: Overcoming Writers BlockComposing My First College Essay, by Sandy KlemHow to Avoid Writing, by Robert BenchleyHow to Write 2,500 Words Before Breakfast Every DayJohn McPhees Remedy for Writers BlockRobert Pirsig on Overcoming Writers BlockA Trick for Overcoming Writers Block and Getting Into a Writing Frame of MindWriters on Writing: The Myth of Inspiration Examples and Observations You dont know what it is to stay a whole day with your head in your hands trying to squeeze your unfortunate brain so as to find a word.(Gustave Flaubert, 1866)Why is suffering a major criterion for writers block? Because someone who is not writing but not suffering does not have writers block; he or she is merely not writing. Such times may instead be fallow periods for the development of new ideas, periods Keats famously described as delicious diligent indolence.(Alice W. Flaherty, The Midnight Disease: The Drive to Write, Writers Block, and the Creative Brain. Houghton Mifflin, 2004)Although it can be triggered by any number of internal or external stimuli, the vital function that writers block performs during the creative process remains constant: inability to write means that the unconscious self is vetoing the program demanded by the conscious ego.(Victoria Nelson, On Writers Block. Houghton Mifflin, 1993)I think writers block is simply the dread that you are going to write som ething horrible.(Roy Blount, Jr.) William Staffords Remedy for Writers BlockI believe that the so-called writing block is a product of some kind of disproportion between your standards and your performance. . . .Well, I have a formula for this that may just be a gimmicky way of explaining it. Anyway, it goes like this: one should lower his standards until there is no felt threshold to go over in writing. It’s easy to write. You just shouldn’t have standards that inhibit you from writing.(William Stafford, Writing the Australian Crawl. University of Michigan Press, 1978) Eminem on Writers BlockFallin asleep with writers block in the parking lot of McDonalds,But instead of feeling sorry for yourself do something about it.Admit you got a problem, your brain is clouded, you pouted long enough.(Eminem, Talkin 2 Myself. Recovery, 2010) Stephen King on Writers Block- There may be a stretch of weeks or months when it doesnt come at all; this is called writers block. Some writers in the throes of writers block think their muses have died, but I dont think that happens often; I think what happens is that the writers themselves sow the edges of their clearing with poison bait to keep their muses away, often without knowing they are doing it. This may explain the extraordinarily long pause between Joseph Hellers classic novel Catch-22 and the follow-up, years later. That was called Something Happened. I always thought that what happened was Mr. Heller finally cleared away the muse repellent around his particular clearing in the woods.(Stephen King, The Writing Life. The Washington Post, October 1, 2006)- [M]y son, fed up with hearing me complain and whine about my illness, gave me a present for Christmas, Stephen King’s On Writing. . . . The simple theme of this remarkable book is if you really want to write, then shut yourself in a room, close the door, and WRITE. If you don’t want to write, do something else.(Mary Garden, Writers Block. Absolute Write, 2007) The Trick[Y]ou dont want to face the blank page. Youll do anything to avoid writing. Youll go clean your toilet before you write. So I finally figured it out. Ive done the most writing this year because of a trick Ive figured out. . . . The trick is you gotta find something worse than writing. [Laughing] Thats it. Thats the trick.(Robert Rodriguez, quoted by Charles Ramirez Berg in The Mariachi Aesthetic Goes to Hollywood. Robert Rodriguez: Interviews, ed. by Zachary Ingle. University Press of Mississippi, 2012) The Lighter Side of Writers Block[Writing is] brutal, slogging work, comparable to coal mining, but harder. You never hear coal miners complaining about Coal Miners Block, wherein, try as they might, they simply cant bring themselves to mine another piece of coal. Whereas this kind of tragedy befalls novelists all the time, which is why so many of them are forced to quit working altogether and become university professors.(Dave Barry, Ill Mature When Im Dead. Berkley, 2010)

Film Review on The Sixth Sense Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Film Review on The Sixth Sense - Essay Example This is in addition to the fact that the movie made an important contribution in the film industry in terms of cinematography on the basis of the Academy Awards nominations (Kennedy, Marshall, Mendel, and Shyamalan, 1999). The Sixth Sense can be considered to have important contributions in the manner of creating films on the basis of different points such as the story line, the plot and the issues discussed. It can be considered as a film that is not classified as an ordinary thriller film since the main character’s capability lightened the effect of the film. Although this is the case, the said factor and style of the film brought it farther from the surreal aspect and nearer to reality. The said effect made it stand out and create impression apart from other films classified as thriller. The support of the adult to developing and growing up children can be considered as one of the important issues that can be observed in the film. The issue had been presented in the support needed by one of the main character, Cole Sear, related to his gift and capability of the paranormal events regarding communication with dead people and helping them. Due to the fact that even the boy’s mother had difficulty in believing and supporting him, the need for support and care in terms of his talent had been answered by the expert assigned to cure his perceived hallucinations, the child psychologist, Dr. Malcolm Crowe. The child himself had been changed by the support given by the doctor. He started to learn how to communicate and help the dead people he is seeing and how not to be afraid of them anymore. Basically in the process he was able to gain confidence that made the development of his character towards the positive aspect. Aside from the fact that he was able to face his fears, his relationship with his mother also improved. The whole movie can be considered to present different cases wherein the child’s development had also helped the people

Assessment of physical workload in boiler operations Assignment - 1

Assessment of physical workload in boiler operations - Assignment Example These were used as indicators for quantifying physical labour that such operators experienced. In this case, Justino et al (4) had to use a number of instruments to measure the heart rate, places of higher overload, pain in certain parts of the operators’ body, and physical workload. These instruments included heart rate monitor, which was utilised to measure the heart rate, the tape measure for marking the key points where operators of the boiler remained during the process of boiler operation, the Infrared digital camera for showing the areas that experienced higher incidence of thermal radiations within the body of operators, the heart rate meter for recording the operator’s heartbeat, the painful Areas Diagram and Nordic questionnaire for collecting information regarding pain experienced by operators, and the wet-bulb globe thermometer (WBGT) for recording thermal temperatures, which in turn helped ascertain places of higher thermal overload. To measure pain, a diagram, in this case, human body was divided into 24 segments. Was followed was to evaluate these body parts to ascertain areas that the operators experienced pain. This was done by evaluating subjectively, with the use of a scale ranging from zero to seven, the level of discomfort experienced in each of the 24 segments. In measuring the heart beats, the heart rate meter, which consisted of three parts: transmitter, digital pulse receiver, and an electrode elastic strap, was used. This way, a transmitter was fixed in the chest of the operator to enable the heart beats to be captured and stored within the wrist receiver. In order to ascertain which parts of the body experienced higher thermal overload, a tape measure was used to mark key areas that an operator remained while carrying out the boiling operations. The wet-bulb globe thermometer (WBGT) was then used to

Perkembangan

Perkembangan CADANGAN DEVISA, FINANCIAL DEEPENING DAN STABILISASI NILAI TUKAR RIIL RUPIAH AKIBAT GEJOLAK NILAI TUKAR PERDAGANGAN Abstract These papers analyze the influence of the international reserves and the financial deepening on the real exchange rate stabilization due to the terms of trade shock. The analysis covers 6 countries with quarterly data (Indonesia, United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea during the period of 2000.1 to 2006.4). This research utilizes the international reserves mitigation and the financial deepening mitigation model. This result shows that the reserves mitigation terms variable plays important role as the real exchange rate stabilization regarding the terms of trade shock in a common sample, but not in specific country. The mitigation effect associated with international reserves (buffer stock effect) applies only in South Korea. While for United State and Indonesia mitigation effect associated with international reserves opposite way. Even for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, the mitigation effect does not have significant induces real exchange rate stability. Furthermore, the financial deepening mitigation terms variable cannot be treated as the real exchange rate stabilization in a common sample, but not specific country. The mitigation effect associated with financial deepening (shock absorber effect) applies only in United States and Indonesian economic, while for South Korea the mitigation effect associated with the financial deepening works in opposite way. Even for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, the mitigation effect of financial deepening does not have significant induces real exchange rate stability. In Indonesian economic, the financial deepening is more effective than the international reserve to create the real exchange rate stability. The shock absorber effect in Indonesia is more effective than the buffer stock effect to stabilize the real exchange rate due to the terms of trade shock. JEL Classification: E44, F31, F32 Keywords: International reserves, buffer stock, financial deepening, shock absorber, terms of trade shock, real exchange rate. I. PENDAHULUAN Perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia dewasa ini menunjukkan semakin terintegrasi dengan perekonomian dunia. Hal ini merupakan konsekuensi dari dianutnya sistem perekonomian terbuka yang dalam aktivitasnya selalu berhubungan dan tidak lepas dari fenomena hubungan internasional. Adanya keterbukaan perekonomian ini memiliki dampak pada perkembangan neraca pembayaran suatu negara yang meliputi arus perdagangan dan lalu lintas modal terhadap luar negeri suatu negara. Salah satu bentuk aliran modal yang masuk ke dalam negeri yaitu dapat berupa devisa yang berasal dari perdagangan internasional yang dilakukan oleh negara tersebut. Meningkatnya ekspor suatu negara akan membawa keuntungan yaitu kenaikan pendapatan, kenaikan devisa, transfer modal dan makin banyaknya kesempatan kerja. Demikian pula meningkatnya impor suatu negara akan memberikan lebih banyak alternatif barang-barang yang dapat dikonsumsi dan terpenuhinya kebutuhan bahan-bahan baku penolong serta barang modal untuk kebutuhan industri di negara-negara tersebut dan transfer teknologi. Perdagangan internasional akan terjadi pada suatu perbandingan harga tertentu yaitu antara harga ekspor dan harga impor yang sering disebut nilai tukar perdagangan (terms of trade, TOT). Nilai tukar perdagangan besar sekali pengaruhnya terhadap kesejahteraan suatu bangsa dan juga sebagai pengukur posisi perdagangan luar negeri suatu bangsa. TOT yang disimbolkan dengan N dihitung sebagai perbandingan antara indeks harga ekspor (Px) dengan indeks harga impor (Pm) atau N = Px/Pm (Nopirin 1992: 71). Kenaikan N menunjukkan perbaikan di dalam Terms of Trade. Perbaikan terms of trade ini dapat timbul sebagai akibat nilai perubahan harga ekspor yang lebih besar realatif terhadap harga impor. Perbaikan terms of trade akan meningkatkan pendapatan negara tersebut dari perdagangan demikian sebaliknya. Selain mempengaruhi pendapatan negara, pergerakan TOT juga mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil, (Mankiw, 2000: 195). Upaya untuk mengatasi pengaruh memburuknya terms of trade terhadap nilai tukar ini dapat menggunakan cadangan devisa (international reserves) yang dimiliki negara yang bersangkutan. Hal ini dibuktikan oleh penelitian Aizenman and Crichton (2006), menyebutkan bahwa negara-negara yang mengekspor barang ­barang sumberdaya alam memiliki volatilitas terms of trade yang 3 kali lebih volatil dibandingkan negara-negara yang mengekspor barang manufaktur. Selain besaran pergerakan TOT, volatilitas ini juga mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil suatu negara Pada dasarnya international reserves berfungsi sebagai buffer stock untuk berjaga-jaga guna menghadapi ketidakpastian keadaan yang akan datang. Sehingga, apabila terjadi depresiasi nilai tukar riil akibat memburuknya terms of trade maka disitulah international reserves berfungsi sebagai penstabil. Perbaikan terms of trade akan meningkatkan aliran modal masuk sehingga akan kembali mendorong apresiasi nilai tukar riil. Seperti halnya penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Rajan dan Siregar (2004), diperoleh bahwa reserves merupakan kunci utama dari suatu negara untuk dapat menghindari krisis ekonomi dan keuangan. Terutama bagi negara-negara dengan perekonomian yang terbuka dimana aliran modal internasional adalah volatil atau rentan terhadap terjadinya shock yang merambat dari negara lain (contagion effect). Bahwa dengan melihat pengalaman krisis yang terjadi pada tahun 1997, negara yang memiliki reserves yang besar dapat menghindari contagion effect dari krisis dengan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan negara yang memiliki reserves yang kecil. Upaya untuk mengatasi gejolak nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock selain dengan international reserves juga dapat diatasi dengan mengukur financial deepening (kedalaman sektor keuangan) suatu negara. Financial deepening diukur melalui rasio M2 dibagi GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Penggunaan rasio ini dikarenakan merupakan rasio paling umum yang digunakan untuk mengukur perkembangan sektor keuangan suatu negara. Hasil rasio ini akan menunjukkan rasio penggunaan M2 untuk menghasilkan setiap GDP. Semakin kecil dalam rasio tersebut menunjukkan semakin dangkal sektor keuangan suatu negara dan semakin besar rasio tersebut menunjukkan sektor keuangan negara tersebut semakin dalam. Suatu negara dengan rasio financial deepening yang besar cederung mengurangi peran international reserves sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil. Hal ini dikarenakan negara dengan rasio financial deepening yang besar dapat dikatakan telah memiliki pertumbuhan ekonomi yang sudah baik sehingga negara tersebut dapat mengatasi gejolak nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock dengan penyesuaian otomatis melalui mekanisme pasar, Aizenman dan Crichton (2006). Karakteristik Indonesia sebagai à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬  small open economyà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   yang menganut sistem devisa bebas dan sistem nilai tukar mengambang (free floating) menyebabkan pergerakan nilai tukar di pasar rentan oleh pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non-ekonomi. Untuk mengurangi gejolak nilai tukar yang berlebihan maka pelaksanaan intervensi menjadi sangat penting terutama untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar pada saat tertentu yang benar-benar dibutuhkan agar dapat memberikan kepastian bagi dunia usaha. Salah satu bentuk intervensi itu adalah dengan menggunakan international reserves dan ini sejalan dengan argumentasi Aizenman,dkk (2004) bahwa suatu negara yang menerapkan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas akan cenderung mengurangi permintaan international reserves-nya. Di Indonesia, Bank Indonesia sejauh ini berupaya untuk mengoptimalkan berbagai fasilitas atau insentif agar semakin banyak eksportir yang bersedia menyerahkan devisa hasil ekspornya ke Bank Indonesia (Goeltom dan Zulverdi, 1998). Bahkan dalam masa krisis pasar modal global 2008 ini, Bank Indonesia mewajibkan pengguna valas untuk melaporkan peruntukannya jika melebihi US$10.000 per bulan. Permasalahan mendasar yang diangkat dalam penelitian ini diantaranya: 1) Bagaimanakah pengaruh international reserves dalam perannya sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil akibat terms of trade shock. 2) Bagaimanakah pengaruh financial deepening dalam perannya sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil akibat terms of trade shock. Kedua permasalahan tersebut akan dibahas bagaimanakah pengaruhnya di keseluruhan obyek penelitian dan juga secara spesifik setiap Negara untuk memperoleh perbandingan antar Negara, khususnya antara Indonesia dengan Negara-negara mitra dagang utama (Amerika serikat, Jepang, Singapura, Korea Selatan dan Hongkong). II. TEORI II.1. International Reserves ≈The need of a central bank for international reserves is similar to an individual »s desire to hold cash balances (currency and checkable deposits)à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   (Carbaugh, 2004: 513). Dari pernyataan tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa kebutuhan international reserves bagi suatu negara mempunyai tujuan dan manfaat seperti halnya manfaat kekayaan bagi suatu individu. Motif kepemilikan international reserves dapat disamakan dengan motif seseorang untuk memegang uang yaitu untuk motif transaksi, motif berjaga-jaga dan motif spekulasi. Motif transaksi antara lain untuk membiayai transaksi impor yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah dalam rangka mendukung proses pembangunan, motif berjaga-jaga berkaitan dengan mengelola nilai tukar, serta motif yang ketiga adalah untuk lebih memenuhi kebutuhan diversifikasi kekayaan (memperoleh return dari kegiatan investasi dengan international reserves (Gandhi, 2006: 1). Jhingan (2001) menyatakan bahwa ≈International liquidity (generally used as a synonym for international reserves) is defined as the aggregate stock of internally acceptable assets held by the central bank to settle a deficit in a country »s balance of payments. International reserves merupakan asset dari bank sentral yang dipergunakan untuk mengatasi ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran. Definisi tersebut senada dengan konsep International Reserves and Foreign Currency Lliquidity (IRFCL) yang dikeluarkan oleh IMF bahwa international reserves didefinisikan sebagai seluruh aktiva luar negeri yang dikuasai oleh otoritas moneter dan dapat digunakan setiap waktu guna membiayai ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran atau dalam rangka stabilitas moneter 3. 3 Guidelines for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, IMF, 2001. Sedangkan menurut Salvatore (1996: 513), bahwa international reserves merupakan asset-asset likuid dan berharga tinggi yang dimiliki suatu negara yang nilainya diakui atau diterima oleh masyarakat internasional dan dapat dipakai sebagai alat-alat pembayaran yang sah bagi pemerintah atau negara yang merupakan pemiliknya dalam mengadakan transaksi-transaksi atau pembayaran internasional. Selain untuk tujuan stabilisasi nilai tukar, terkait dengan neraca pembayaran international reserves dapat digunakan untuk membiayai impor dan membayar kewajiban luar negeri. Besar kecilnya akumulasi international reserves suatu negara biasanya ditentukan oleh kegiatan perdagangan (ekspor dan impor) serta arus modal negara tersebut. Kecukupan international reserves ditentukan oleh besarnya kebutuhan impor dan sistem nilai tukar yang digunakan. Dalam sistem nilai tukar yang mengambang bebas, fungsi international reserves adalah untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar hanya terbatas pada tindakan untuk mengurangi fluktuasi nilai tukar yang terlalu tajam. Oleh karena itu, international reserves yang dibutuhkan tidak perlu sebesar international reserves yang dibutuhkan apabila negara tersebut mengadopsi sistem nilai tukar tetap. Wujud utama dari international reserves adalah emas, hard currencies yang pada umumnya dalam bentuk empat jenis mata uang utama yang dianggap paling berpengaruh di dunia, yaitu: US dollar, Euro, Poundsterling dan Yen serta surat-surat berharga terbitan IMF yang biasa disebut sebagai Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Penjelasan lebih rinci mengenai komponen international reserves sebagaimana dijelaskan oleh Gandhi (2006: 4). Berkaitan dengan sifat dari rezim nilai tukar (sistem nilai tukar tetap, mengambang dan mengambang terkendali) di negara yang menganut sistem nilai tukar tetap pada umumnya memerlukan international reserves yang besar untuk mempertahankan nilai tukar pada level yang ditetapkan. Hal ini dikarenakan oleh ketakutan negara itu akan ketidakpastian dalam sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas yang diterapkannya. Sehingga, sebagai upaya untuk berjaga√jaga dalam menghadapi fluktuasi nilai tukarnya otoritas moneter negara tersebut membutuhkan international reserves dalam jumlah yang dianggap memadai guna stabilisasi nilai tukar. Pada sistem nilai tukar mengambang, terjadinya pergerakan nilai tukar dapat diatasi sendiri oleh mekanisme pasar, sehingga jumlah international reserves yang dibutuhkan tidak sebanyak yang dibutuhkan oleh suatu negara dengan sistem nilai tukar tetap yang rigid. Menurut Carbaugh (2004: 516), tujuan utama dari international reserves adalah untuk memfasilitasi pemerintah dalam melakukan intervensi pasar sebagai upaya untuk menstabilkan nilai tukar. Sehingga, suatu negara dengan aktivitas stabilisasi yang aktif memerlukan jumlah international reserves yang besar pula. Keterbukaan perekonomian suatu negara tercermin dengan semakin besarnya transaksi perdagangan dan aliran modal antar negara. Semakin terbuka perekonomian suatu negara kebutuhan international reserves-nya cenderung semakin besar guna membiayai transaksi perdagangan. Parameter yang biasa dipakai untuk mengukur kecukupan international reserves sehubungan dengan transaksi perdagangan antar negara adalah marginal propensity to import. Semakin besar angka propensity tersebut menunjukkan semakin besarnya kebutuhan international reserves yang harus dimiliki dan semakin kecil angka propensity tersebut menunjukkan semakin kecilnya kebutuhan international reserves yang harus dimiliki (Gandhi, 2006: 11). Dengan tersedianya international reserves yang mencukupi maka apabila suatu negara mengahadapi kondisi terms of trade yang buruk yang kemudian akan berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riilnya maka international reserves dapat berperan sebagai absorber. II.2. Nilai Tukar Perdagangan (Terms of Trade) Terdapat beberapa konsep tentang TOT. Konsep pertama merupakan konsep yang paling umum digunakan, yaitu net barter terms of trade atau juga dapat disebut commodity terms of trade. Net barter terms of trade adalah perbandingan antara indeks harga ekspor dengan indeks harga impor. Kenaikan ekspor menunjukkan perbaikan di dalam nilai tukar perdagangan, artinya untuk sejumlah tertentu ekspor dapat diperoleh jumlah impor yang lebih banyak dengan melalui hubungan harga (Nopirin, 1995: 71). Forumulasinya dapat dituliskan dengan rumus sebagai berikut: (III.1) Dimana, Px adalah Indeks harga ekspor; Pm adalah Indeks harga impor; dan 100 adalah Indeks tahun dasar. Bila N >100 atau terjadi kenaikan net barter terms of trade maka berarti terjadi perkembangan perdagangan luar negeri yang positif karena dengan nilai ekspor tertentu diperoleh nilai impor yang lebih besar (Hady, 2001:77). Konsep kedua adalah gross barter terms of trade, merupakan perbandingan antara indeks volume impor dengan indeks volume ekspor. Konsep ini menjadi tidak penting karena kurang memberikan gambaran tentang perubahan harga. Oleh karena itu, apabila konsep terms of trade tanpa diberi penjelasan apa-apa maka yang dimaksud adalah konsep net barter terms of trade. Konsep ketiga adalah income terms of trade yang dapat dituliskan dengan rumus sebagai berikut : (III.2) Dimana: N adalah net barter terms of trade; Px adalah Indeks harga ekspor; Pm adalah Indeks harga impor; dan Qx adalah Indeks kuantitas ekspor. Berdasarkan konsep ini, kenaikan income terms of trade menunjukkan bahwa suatu negara dapat memperoleh jumlah impor yang lebih besar dengan dasar kenaikan nilai ekspornya. Bagi negara-negara yang sedang berkembang, selain variabel harga juga sangat penting untuk menilai terms of trade ini dengan mempertimbangkan volume ekspornya karena kenaikan harga ekspor yang tinggi mungkin diimbangi dengan turunnya volume ekspor. Perbaikan TOT dapat timbul sebagai akibat: (1) harga ekspor naik sedang harga impor tetap; (2) harga ekspor tetap sedang harga impor turun; (3) harga ekspor naik dengan proporsi yang lebih besar daripada naiknya harga impor; (4) harga ekspor turun dengan proporsi yang lebih kecil daripada turunnya harga impor. Mekanisme bagaimana TOT dapat berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riil adalah dapat dilihat dari sebuah mekanisme sederhana yaitu perbaikan TOT akan meningkatkan aliran modal masuk yang berasal dari perdagangan yang selanjutnya dapat mengapresiasi nilai tukar riil dan sebaliknya. Memburuknya TOT akan mengakibatkan permintaan valuta asing meningkat sehingga akan mendepresiasi nilai tukar riil. Terkait dengan jenis produksi yang diperdagangkan, maka secara umum nilai tukar perdagangan komoditi (commodity terms of trade atau net barter terms of trade) negara ­negara berkembang cenderung mengalami kemerosotan dari waktu ke waktu. Salah satu penyebab utamanya adalah sebagian besar atau bahkan semua kenaikan produktivitas yang terjadi di negara-negara maju dialirkan ke para pekerjanya dalam bentuk upah dan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi, sedangkan sebagian besar atau seluruh kenaikan produktivitas yang berlangsung di negara-negara berkembang diwujudkan sebagai harga-harga produk yang lebih murah (Salvatore, 1996 : 431). II.3. Nilai Tukar Riil (Real Exchange Rate) dan Pasar Valas Setiap negara memiliki sebuah mata uang yang menunjukkan harga-harga barang dan jasa. Pengertian nilai tukar valuta asing adalah ≈Exchange rate is the price of one nation »s money in terms of another nation »s money.à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   ≈The nominal exchange rate is usually called the exchange rateà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬  . Menurut definisi tersebut nilai tukar diartikan sebagai harga suatu mata uang terhadap mata uang negara lain. Nilai tukar nominal biasa disebut nilai tukar (exchange rate) (Pugel, 2004). Menurut Mankiw, nilai tukar nominal adalah harga relatif dimana seseorang dapat memperdagangkan mata uang suatu negara dengan mata uang lainnya (Mankiw, 2000: 200). Dengan menggunakan suatu indeks harga untuk Indonesia (P), sebuah indeks harga untuk harga-harga di luar negeri (P*) dan nilai tukar nominal antara rupiah dengan mata uang asing (e), akan dapat diukur nilai tukar riil keseluruhan antara Indonesia dengan negara-negara lain sebagai berikut : Nilai Tukar Riil = (e x P) / P* (III.3) Terdapat paling tidak 3 faktor utama yang mempengaruhi permintaan valuta asing. Pertama, faktor pembayaran impor. Semakin tinggi impor barang dan jasa, maka semakin besar permintaan terhadap valuta asing sehingga nilai tukar akan cenderung melemah. Kedua, faktor aliran modal keluar (capital outflow). Semakin besar aliran modal keluar, maka semakin besar permintaan valuta asing dan pada kelanjutannya akan memperlemah nilai tukar. Aliran modal keluar meliputi pembayaran hutang penduduk Indonesia (baik swasta dan pemerintah) kepada pihak asing dan penempatan dana penduduk Indonesia ke luar negeri. Ketiga , kegiatan spekulasi. Semakin banyak kegiatan spekulasi valuta asing yang dilakukan oleh spekulan, maka semakin besar permintaan terhadap valuta asing sehingga memperlemah nilai tukar mata uang lokal terhadap mata uang asing. Sementara itu, penawaran valuta asing dipengaruhi oleh dua faktor utama. Pertama, faktor penerimaan hasil ekspor. Semakin besar volume penerimaan ekspor barang dan jasa, maka semakin besar jumlah valuta asing yang dimiliki oleh suatu negara dan pada lanjutannya nilai tukar terhadap mata uang asing cenderung menguat atau apresiasi. Kedua, faktor aliran modal masuk (capital inflow). Semakin besar aliran modal masuk, maka nilai tukar akan cenderung semakin menguat. Aliran modal masuk tersebut dapat berupa penerimaan hutang luar negeri, penempatan dana jangka pendek oleh pihak asing (portofolio investment) dan investasi langsung pihak asing (foreign direct investment) (Simorangkir dan Suseno, 2004: 6). II.4. Financial Deepening Ukuran dari perkembangan intermediasi keuangan biasanya digunakan pengukuran indikator melalui kuantitas, kualitas, dan efisiensi dari jasa intermediasi keuangan (Calderon, 2002:5). Terdapat beberapa indikator untuk mengetahui seberapa besar tingkat perkembangan sektor keuangan salah satu diantaranya adalah rasio antara aset keuangan dalam negeri terhadap GDP (Muklis, 2005: 2). Menurut King dan Levine (1993), ≈Financial deepening means an increase in the money supply of financial assets in the economy, it is important to develop some measures of the widest range of financial assets, including money.à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   Selain itu, King dan Levine merancang 4 ukuran dalam perhitungan perkembangan sektor keuangan. Pertama, ukuran dari kedalaman sektor keuangan adalah rasio dari kewajiban lancar (liquid liabilities) dari sistem keuangan terhadap GDP. Kewajiban lancar dalam hal ini adalah M3, namun apabila M3 tidak bisa didapatkan maka digunakan M2. Hal ini sejalan dengan IMF dalam database International Financial Statistic dan juga Slangor (1991:11). Kedua , adalah rasio dari deposit money bank domestic asset dibagi dengan deposit money bank domestic asset ditambah dengan central bank domestic asset yang menggambarkan institusi keuangan yang lebih spesifik. Ketiga , rasio kredit dari sektor swasta non keuangan dibagi dengan total kredit domestik. Keempat, adalah rasio kredit sektor swasta non-keuangan dibagi dengan GDP. Dua yang terakhir ini menggambarkan ukuran kuangan sektor dan tingkat pinjaman publik (King dan Levine, 1993: 4). Penggunaan rasio M2 terhadap GDP sebagai indikator financial deepening juga dibenarkan oleh King dan Levine, (1993: 5). Semakin kecil rasio tersebut maka semakin dangkal sektor keuangan suatu negara. Suatu negara dikatakan memiliki sektor keuangan yang dalam apabila M2 > 20% dari GDP dan dangkal apabila M2 III. METODOLOGI Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder dan merupakan data panel, mencakup periode 2000:Q1 2006:Q4 dan 6 negara yakni Indonesia dan 5 negara mitra dagang utamanya yaitu; Amerika Serikat, Jepang, Hongkong, Singapura dan Korea Selatan. Sumber utama data berasal dari International Financial Statistic yang diterbitkan oleh IMF. Teknik estimasi data panel digunakan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar pengaruh international reserves yang digunakan dalam rangka stabilisasi nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock. Selain itu model ini juga diperunakan untuk melihat bagaimana peran financial deepening suatu negara dalam stabilisasi nilai tukar ini. Model persamaan yang diestimasi, dikembangkan dari penelitian (Aizenman dan Crichton, 2006), yakni: 1. Model international reserves mitigation terms : (III.4) 2. Model financial deepening mitigation terms : Dimana : RER adalah nilai tukar riil (Real Exchange Rate); ETOT adalah efektifitas nilai tukar perdagangan yang dinilai dari keterbukaan perdagangan (Trade Openness) yang dikalikan dengan nilai tukar perdagangan (Terms of Trade); RES adalah cadangan internasional (International reserves); FD adalah kedalaman sektor keuangan (Financial Deepening); i adalah crossection indentification; t adalah time series identification; ÃŽ µit adalah Koefisien pengganggu (error terms) 4. Varian pertama dari teknik estimasi data panel adalah pendekatan pooled least square (PLS) yang secara sederhana menggabungkan seluruh data time series dan cross section dan kemudian mengestimasi model dengan menggunakan metode ordinary least square (OLS) 5. Pendekatan kedua adalah fixed effect model (FEM) yang memperhitungkan kemungkinan perbedaan intercept antar individu yang ditunjukkan dengan kehadiran ÃŽ ±i pada persamaan (III.6). Secara teknis, model dengan fixed effect menambahkan dummy variables sebanyak N-1 buah ketika terdapat N individu. Pendekatan ketiga adalah random effect model (REM) yang dapat memperbaiki efisiensi proses least square dengan memperhitungkan error dari time series dan cross section. Berbeda dengan FEM, model REM memperlakukan intercept sebagai random variable dengan rata-rata ÃŽ ± dengan stokastik terms ÃŽ µit. Model random effect adalah variasi dari estimasi generalized least square (GLS). Model data panel untuk masing-masing varian teknik tersebut adalah sebagai berikut (Gujarati, 2003: 640): a. Pooled Least Square (III.6) b. Fixed Effect (III.7) c. Random Effect (III.8) Pada dasarnya penggunaan metode data panel memiliki beberapa keunggulan (Widarjono, 2005: 254). Pertama , panel data mampu memperhitungkan heterogenitas individu secara eksplisit dengan mengijinkan variabel spesifik individu. Kemampuan mengontrol heterogenitas 4 Definisi operasional variabel lebih detail dapat dilihat dilampiran IV.A. 5 Lihat: Baltagi, 2002 ; Gujarati, 2003 ; Maddala ; 1993 ; Pindyck dan Rubinfeld, 1998. individu ini pada gilirannya menjadikan data panel dapat digunakan untuk menguji dan membangun model perilaku yang lebih kompleks. Kedua, jika efek spesifik signifikan berkorelasi dengan variabel penjelas lainnya, penggunaan panel data akan mengurangi masalah omitted variables secara substansial. Ketiga , data panel mendasarkan diri pada observasi cross section yang berulang-ulang (time series), sehingga metode data panel cocok untuk digunakan sebagai study of dynamic adjustment. Keempat, tingginya jumlah observasi memiliki implikasi pada data yang lebih informatif, lebih variatif, kolinearitas antar variabel yang semakin berkurang dan peningkatan derajat kebebasan (degree of freedom), sehingga dapat diperoleh hasil estimasi yang lebih efisien. Kelima, data panel dapat digunakan untuk mempelajari model-model perilaku yang kompleks. Keenam, data panel dapat meminimalisir bias yang mungkin ditimbulkan oleh agregasi data individu. Keunggulan-keunggulan tersebut diatas memiliki implikasi pada tidak diperlukannya pengujian asumsi klasik dalam model data panel, sesuai apa yang ada dalam beberapa literatur yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini6. Dalam estimasi selanjutnya sebagai persyaratan estimasi regresi data panel, perlu di pilih penggunaan antara pooled least square, random effect model atau fixed effect model. Ketiga model tersebut akan berbeda dalam intrepetasi selanjutnya sehingga perlu dilakukan pemilihan model untuk memperoleh estimasi yang efisien sesuai dengan penggunaan regresi data panel. Pertama uji statistik F digunakan untuk memilih antara metode PLS tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih Fixed Effect. Kedua uji Lagrange Multiplier (LM) digunakan untuk memilih antara OLS tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih Random Effect. Terakhir , untuk memilih antara Fixed Effect Model (FEM) atau Random Effect Model (REM) digunakan uji yang dikemukakan oleh Hausman. Jika data time series lebih besar dibandingkan data cross section maka teknik efek acak (REM) kurang tepat atau tidak dapat dipakai untuk mengestimasi suatu model (Telisa, 2004:30)7. Dalam model penelitian ini teknik Random Effect Model (REM) tidak dapat digunakan, karena pada penelitian ini jumlah time series (28 time series) lebih besar dibandingkan dengan jumlah cross section (6 cross section). Oleh sebab itu pemilihan teknik estimasi dalam penelitian ini hanya memilih diantara dua teknik estimasi yaitu PLS (Pooled Least Square) atau FEM (Fixed Effect Model). Hasil pengujian menyarankan penggunaan Model Fixed Effect (Unrestricted) dalam penelitian ini. 6 Lihat: Maddala, 1998; Pindyck Rubinfeld, 1991; Greene, 2003; Gujarati, 2003; Widarjono, 2005. 7 Ibid IV. HASIL DAN ANALISA IV.1. Model International Reserves Mitigation Terms Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data dalam tabel III.1. koefisien determsinasi model International Reserves Mitigation Terms untuk keseluruhan negara adalah sebesar 0.999602 sedangkan untuk estimasi spesifik masing-masing negara adalah sebesar 0.999845. Artinya variasi variabel independen dalam model tersebut mampu menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen kedua model tersebut masing-masing sebesar 99,96% dan 99,98%. Secara simultan, variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam estimasi keseluruhan maupun estimasi spesifik memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan, kondisi tersebut dapat diketahui dari nilai Fyang masing-masing sebesar 57441.05 dan 57032.28. Nilai tersebut melebihi nilai kritis yang dipersyaratkan sesuai dengan F-tabel hingga taraf signifikansi 1%. Dengan demikian nilai F> Fyang berarti H ditolak. Secara parsial sebagaimana terdapat dalam tabel dibawah menunjukkan pengaruh masing-masing variabel bebas yang signifikan terhadap variabel nilai tukar riil (variabel dependen) pada estimasi secara keseluruhan. Namun untuk estimasi spesifik masing-masing negara hanya variabel effective terms of trade Indonesia, reserves mitigation terms Indonesia, Korea dan Amerika yang signifikan secara statistik mempengaruhi vriabel real exchange rate. Sumber: Hasil pengolahan Keterangan: * = Signifikan 1%; **=Signifikan 5%. Dari estimasi secara keseluruhan dalam tabel diatas terlihat bahwa pengaruh effective terms of trade (ETOT) terhadap real exchange rate (RER) adalah positif. Temuan empiris ini tidak sesuai dengan teori yang digunakan dalam penelitian, yaitu diharapkan bernilai negatif. Dengan asumsi bahwa peningkatan real exchange rate merupakan depresiasi nilai tukar domestik atau apresiasi nilai tukar mitra dagang, maka peningkatan pada effective terms of trade suatu negara terhadap negara-negara mitra dagangnya cenderung meningkatkan (depresiasi) real exchange rate. Rata-rata effective terms of trade keseluruhan negara obyek penelitian adalah 1,82, dengan perubahan pada real exchange rate rata-rata apresiasi sebesar 0,04%. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa elastisitas real exchange rate terhadap effective terms of trade shock ialah kenaikan effective terms of trade sebesar 1% mempengaruhi real exchange rate sebesar 0.28%. Dapat diartikan bahwa perbaikan effective terms of trade akan menyebabkan mata uang luar negeri mengalami apresiasi terhadap mata uang dalam negeri. Kondisi demikian menggambarkan bahwa keterbukaan perdagangan memiliki sisi negatif yaitu kecenderungan untuk melemahkan nilai tukar suatu negara ketika terjadi penurunan kinerja perekonomian negara mitra dagang tersebut dan dengan dukungan trade openness dan effective terms of trade yang semakin meningkat. Kondisi ini secara aktual dapat digambarkan pada resesi global pada saat ini yang hampir tidak sedikitpun negara yang menuai imbas negatif. Hampir seluruh perekonomian dunia termasuk nilai tukarnya cenderung terdepresiasi dan perekonomian berjalan lambat. Ketidaksesuaian hasil ini dimungkinkan juga dikarenakan kekuatan pasar yang mempengaruhi fluktuasi nilai tukar. Aliran modal jangka pendek, aliran keuangan internasional baik dari pemerintah maupun swasta yang erat kaitannya dengan keterbukaan perekonomian suatu negara memungkinkan berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riil. Besaran (magnitude) effective terms of trade dalam mempengaruhi pasar nilai tukar dapat dikatakan terlalu kecil jika dibandingkan dengan varabel-variabel lain yang berkaitan dengan nilai tukar. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi dapat dikemukakan bahwa peningkatan atau perbaikan pada effective terms of trade suatu negara berdampak pada peningkatan (apresiasi) nilai tukar riil negara lain sebagai mitra dagang utamanya atau penurunan (depresiasi) nilai tukar pada negaranya sendiri. Dapat dikatakan pula bahwa perbaikan yang terjadi pada effective terms of trade suatu negara menguntungkan negara mitra dagangnya dari sisi nilai tukar, namun tidak untuk negaranya sendiri. Hal ini merupakan efek negatif keterbuk Perkembangan Perkembangan CADANGAN DEVISA, FINANCIAL DEEPENING DAN STABILISASI NILAI TUKAR RIIL RUPIAH AKIBAT GEJOLAK NILAI TUKAR PERDAGANGAN Abstract These papers analyze the influence of the international reserves and the financial deepening on the real exchange rate stabilization due to the terms of trade shock. The analysis covers 6 countries with quarterly data (Indonesia, United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea during the period of 2000.1 to 2006.4). This research utilizes the international reserves mitigation and the financial deepening mitigation model. This result shows that the reserves mitigation terms variable plays important role as the real exchange rate stabilization regarding the terms of trade shock in a common sample, but not in specific country. The mitigation effect associated with international reserves (buffer stock effect) applies only in South Korea. While for United State and Indonesia mitigation effect associated with international reserves opposite way. Even for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, the mitigation effect does not have significant induces real exchange rate stability. Furthermore, the financial deepening mitigation terms variable cannot be treated as the real exchange rate stabilization in a common sample, but not specific country. The mitigation effect associated with financial deepening (shock absorber effect) applies only in United States and Indonesian economic, while for South Korea the mitigation effect associated with the financial deepening works in opposite way. Even for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, the mitigation effect of financial deepening does not have significant induces real exchange rate stability. In Indonesian economic, the financial deepening is more effective than the international reserve to create the real exchange rate stability. The shock absorber effect in Indonesia is more effective than the buffer stock effect to stabilize the real exchange rate due to the terms of trade shock. JEL Classification: E44, F31, F32 Keywords: International reserves, buffer stock, financial deepening, shock absorber, terms of trade shock, real exchange rate. I. PENDAHULUAN Perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia dewasa ini menunjukkan semakin terintegrasi dengan perekonomian dunia. Hal ini merupakan konsekuensi dari dianutnya sistem perekonomian terbuka yang dalam aktivitasnya selalu berhubungan dan tidak lepas dari fenomena hubungan internasional. Adanya keterbukaan perekonomian ini memiliki dampak pada perkembangan neraca pembayaran suatu negara yang meliputi arus perdagangan dan lalu lintas modal terhadap luar negeri suatu negara. Salah satu bentuk aliran modal yang masuk ke dalam negeri yaitu dapat berupa devisa yang berasal dari perdagangan internasional yang dilakukan oleh negara tersebut. Meningkatnya ekspor suatu negara akan membawa keuntungan yaitu kenaikan pendapatan, kenaikan devisa, transfer modal dan makin banyaknya kesempatan kerja. Demikian pula meningkatnya impor suatu negara akan memberikan lebih banyak alternatif barang-barang yang dapat dikonsumsi dan terpenuhinya kebutuhan bahan-bahan baku penolong serta barang modal untuk kebutuhan industri di negara-negara tersebut dan transfer teknologi. Perdagangan internasional akan terjadi pada suatu perbandingan harga tertentu yaitu antara harga ekspor dan harga impor yang sering disebut nilai tukar perdagangan (terms of trade, TOT). Nilai tukar perdagangan besar sekali pengaruhnya terhadap kesejahteraan suatu bangsa dan juga sebagai pengukur posisi perdagangan luar negeri suatu bangsa. TOT yang disimbolkan dengan N dihitung sebagai perbandingan antara indeks harga ekspor (Px) dengan indeks harga impor (Pm) atau N = Px/Pm (Nopirin 1992: 71). Kenaikan N menunjukkan perbaikan di dalam Terms of Trade. Perbaikan terms of trade ini dapat timbul sebagai akibat nilai perubahan harga ekspor yang lebih besar realatif terhadap harga impor. Perbaikan terms of trade akan meningkatkan pendapatan negara tersebut dari perdagangan demikian sebaliknya. Selain mempengaruhi pendapatan negara, pergerakan TOT juga mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil, (Mankiw, 2000: 195). Upaya untuk mengatasi pengaruh memburuknya terms of trade terhadap nilai tukar ini dapat menggunakan cadangan devisa (international reserves) yang dimiliki negara yang bersangkutan. Hal ini dibuktikan oleh penelitian Aizenman and Crichton (2006), menyebutkan bahwa negara-negara yang mengekspor barang ­barang sumberdaya alam memiliki volatilitas terms of trade yang 3 kali lebih volatil dibandingkan negara-negara yang mengekspor barang manufaktur. Selain besaran pergerakan TOT, volatilitas ini juga mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil suatu negara Pada dasarnya international reserves berfungsi sebagai buffer stock untuk berjaga-jaga guna menghadapi ketidakpastian keadaan yang akan datang. Sehingga, apabila terjadi depresiasi nilai tukar riil akibat memburuknya terms of trade maka disitulah international reserves berfungsi sebagai penstabil. Perbaikan terms of trade akan meningkatkan aliran modal masuk sehingga akan kembali mendorong apresiasi nilai tukar riil. Seperti halnya penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Rajan dan Siregar (2004), diperoleh bahwa reserves merupakan kunci utama dari suatu negara untuk dapat menghindari krisis ekonomi dan keuangan. Terutama bagi negara-negara dengan perekonomian yang terbuka dimana aliran modal internasional adalah volatil atau rentan terhadap terjadinya shock yang merambat dari negara lain (contagion effect). Bahwa dengan melihat pengalaman krisis yang terjadi pada tahun 1997, negara yang memiliki reserves yang besar dapat menghindari contagion effect dari krisis dengan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan negara yang memiliki reserves yang kecil. Upaya untuk mengatasi gejolak nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock selain dengan international reserves juga dapat diatasi dengan mengukur financial deepening (kedalaman sektor keuangan) suatu negara. Financial deepening diukur melalui rasio M2 dibagi GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Penggunaan rasio ini dikarenakan merupakan rasio paling umum yang digunakan untuk mengukur perkembangan sektor keuangan suatu negara. Hasil rasio ini akan menunjukkan rasio penggunaan M2 untuk menghasilkan setiap GDP. Semakin kecil dalam rasio tersebut menunjukkan semakin dangkal sektor keuangan suatu negara dan semakin besar rasio tersebut menunjukkan sektor keuangan negara tersebut semakin dalam. Suatu negara dengan rasio financial deepening yang besar cederung mengurangi peran international reserves sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil. Hal ini dikarenakan negara dengan rasio financial deepening yang besar dapat dikatakan telah memiliki pertumbuhan ekonomi yang sudah baik sehingga negara tersebut dapat mengatasi gejolak nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock dengan penyesuaian otomatis melalui mekanisme pasar, Aizenman dan Crichton (2006). Karakteristik Indonesia sebagai à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬  small open economyà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   yang menganut sistem devisa bebas dan sistem nilai tukar mengambang (free floating) menyebabkan pergerakan nilai tukar di pasar rentan oleh pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non-ekonomi. Untuk mengurangi gejolak nilai tukar yang berlebihan maka pelaksanaan intervensi menjadi sangat penting terutama untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar pada saat tertentu yang benar-benar dibutuhkan agar dapat memberikan kepastian bagi dunia usaha. Salah satu bentuk intervensi itu adalah dengan menggunakan international reserves dan ini sejalan dengan argumentasi Aizenman,dkk (2004) bahwa suatu negara yang menerapkan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas akan cenderung mengurangi permintaan international reserves-nya. Di Indonesia, Bank Indonesia sejauh ini berupaya untuk mengoptimalkan berbagai fasilitas atau insentif agar semakin banyak eksportir yang bersedia menyerahkan devisa hasil ekspornya ke Bank Indonesia (Goeltom dan Zulverdi, 1998). Bahkan dalam masa krisis pasar modal global 2008 ini, Bank Indonesia mewajibkan pengguna valas untuk melaporkan peruntukannya jika melebihi US$10.000 per bulan. Permasalahan mendasar yang diangkat dalam penelitian ini diantaranya: 1) Bagaimanakah pengaruh international reserves dalam perannya sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil akibat terms of trade shock. 2) Bagaimanakah pengaruh financial deepening dalam perannya sebagai penstabil nilai tukar riil akibat terms of trade shock. Kedua permasalahan tersebut akan dibahas bagaimanakah pengaruhnya di keseluruhan obyek penelitian dan juga secara spesifik setiap Negara untuk memperoleh perbandingan antar Negara, khususnya antara Indonesia dengan Negara-negara mitra dagang utama (Amerika serikat, Jepang, Singapura, Korea Selatan dan Hongkong). II. TEORI II.1. International Reserves ≈The need of a central bank for international reserves is similar to an individual »s desire to hold cash balances (currency and checkable deposits)à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   (Carbaugh, 2004: 513). Dari pernyataan tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa kebutuhan international reserves bagi suatu negara mempunyai tujuan dan manfaat seperti halnya manfaat kekayaan bagi suatu individu. Motif kepemilikan international reserves dapat disamakan dengan motif seseorang untuk memegang uang yaitu untuk motif transaksi, motif berjaga-jaga dan motif spekulasi. Motif transaksi antara lain untuk membiayai transaksi impor yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah dalam rangka mendukung proses pembangunan, motif berjaga-jaga berkaitan dengan mengelola nilai tukar, serta motif yang ketiga adalah untuk lebih memenuhi kebutuhan diversifikasi kekayaan (memperoleh return dari kegiatan investasi dengan international reserves (Gandhi, 2006: 1). Jhingan (2001) menyatakan bahwa ≈International liquidity (generally used as a synonym for international reserves) is defined as the aggregate stock of internally acceptable assets held by the central bank to settle a deficit in a country »s balance of payments. International reserves merupakan asset dari bank sentral yang dipergunakan untuk mengatasi ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran. Definisi tersebut senada dengan konsep International Reserves and Foreign Currency Lliquidity (IRFCL) yang dikeluarkan oleh IMF bahwa international reserves didefinisikan sebagai seluruh aktiva luar negeri yang dikuasai oleh otoritas moneter dan dapat digunakan setiap waktu guna membiayai ketidakseimbangan neraca pembayaran atau dalam rangka stabilitas moneter 3. 3 Guidelines for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, IMF, 2001. Sedangkan menurut Salvatore (1996: 513), bahwa international reserves merupakan asset-asset likuid dan berharga tinggi yang dimiliki suatu negara yang nilainya diakui atau diterima oleh masyarakat internasional dan dapat dipakai sebagai alat-alat pembayaran yang sah bagi pemerintah atau negara yang merupakan pemiliknya dalam mengadakan transaksi-transaksi atau pembayaran internasional. Selain untuk tujuan stabilisasi nilai tukar, terkait dengan neraca pembayaran international reserves dapat digunakan untuk membiayai impor dan membayar kewajiban luar negeri. Besar kecilnya akumulasi international reserves suatu negara biasanya ditentukan oleh kegiatan perdagangan (ekspor dan impor) serta arus modal negara tersebut. Kecukupan international reserves ditentukan oleh besarnya kebutuhan impor dan sistem nilai tukar yang digunakan. Dalam sistem nilai tukar yang mengambang bebas, fungsi international reserves adalah untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar hanya terbatas pada tindakan untuk mengurangi fluktuasi nilai tukar yang terlalu tajam. Oleh karena itu, international reserves yang dibutuhkan tidak perlu sebesar international reserves yang dibutuhkan apabila negara tersebut mengadopsi sistem nilai tukar tetap. Wujud utama dari international reserves adalah emas, hard currencies yang pada umumnya dalam bentuk empat jenis mata uang utama yang dianggap paling berpengaruh di dunia, yaitu: US dollar, Euro, Poundsterling dan Yen serta surat-surat berharga terbitan IMF yang biasa disebut sebagai Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Penjelasan lebih rinci mengenai komponen international reserves sebagaimana dijelaskan oleh Gandhi (2006: 4). Berkaitan dengan sifat dari rezim nilai tukar (sistem nilai tukar tetap, mengambang dan mengambang terkendali) di negara yang menganut sistem nilai tukar tetap pada umumnya memerlukan international reserves yang besar untuk mempertahankan nilai tukar pada level yang ditetapkan. Hal ini dikarenakan oleh ketakutan negara itu akan ketidakpastian dalam sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas yang diterapkannya. Sehingga, sebagai upaya untuk berjaga√jaga dalam menghadapi fluktuasi nilai tukarnya otoritas moneter negara tersebut membutuhkan international reserves dalam jumlah yang dianggap memadai guna stabilisasi nilai tukar. Pada sistem nilai tukar mengambang, terjadinya pergerakan nilai tukar dapat diatasi sendiri oleh mekanisme pasar, sehingga jumlah international reserves yang dibutuhkan tidak sebanyak yang dibutuhkan oleh suatu negara dengan sistem nilai tukar tetap yang rigid. Menurut Carbaugh (2004: 516), tujuan utama dari international reserves adalah untuk memfasilitasi pemerintah dalam melakukan intervensi pasar sebagai upaya untuk menstabilkan nilai tukar. Sehingga, suatu negara dengan aktivitas stabilisasi yang aktif memerlukan jumlah international reserves yang besar pula. Keterbukaan perekonomian suatu negara tercermin dengan semakin besarnya transaksi perdagangan dan aliran modal antar negara. Semakin terbuka perekonomian suatu negara kebutuhan international reserves-nya cenderung semakin besar guna membiayai transaksi perdagangan. Parameter yang biasa dipakai untuk mengukur kecukupan international reserves sehubungan dengan transaksi perdagangan antar negara adalah marginal propensity to import. Semakin besar angka propensity tersebut menunjukkan semakin besarnya kebutuhan international reserves yang harus dimiliki dan semakin kecil angka propensity tersebut menunjukkan semakin kecilnya kebutuhan international reserves yang harus dimiliki (Gandhi, 2006: 11). Dengan tersedianya international reserves yang mencukupi maka apabila suatu negara mengahadapi kondisi terms of trade yang buruk yang kemudian akan berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riilnya maka international reserves dapat berperan sebagai absorber. II.2. Nilai Tukar Perdagangan (Terms of Trade) Terdapat beberapa konsep tentang TOT. Konsep pertama merupakan konsep yang paling umum digunakan, yaitu net barter terms of trade atau juga dapat disebut commodity terms of trade. Net barter terms of trade adalah perbandingan antara indeks harga ekspor dengan indeks harga impor. Kenaikan ekspor menunjukkan perbaikan di dalam nilai tukar perdagangan, artinya untuk sejumlah tertentu ekspor dapat diperoleh jumlah impor yang lebih banyak dengan melalui hubungan harga (Nopirin, 1995: 71). Forumulasinya dapat dituliskan dengan rumus sebagai berikut: (III.1) Dimana, Px adalah Indeks harga ekspor; Pm adalah Indeks harga impor; dan 100 adalah Indeks tahun dasar. Bila N >100 atau terjadi kenaikan net barter terms of trade maka berarti terjadi perkembangan perdagangan luar negeri yang positif karena dengan nilai ekspor tertentu diperoleh nilai impor yang lebih besar (Hady, 2001:77). Konsep kedua adalah gross barter terms of trade, merupakan perbandingan antara indeks volume impor dengan indeks volume ekspor. Konsep ini menjadi tidak penting karena kurang memberikan gambaran tentang perubahan harga. Oleh karena itu, apabila konsep terms of trade tanpa diberi penjelasan apa-apa maka yang dimaksud adalah konsep net barter terms of trade. Konsep ketiga adalah income terms of trade yang dapat dituliskan dengan rumus sebagai berikut : (III.2) Dimana: N adalah net barter terms of trade; Px adalah Indeks harga ekspor; Pm adalah Indeks harga impor; dan Qx adalah Indeks kuantitas ekspor. Berdasarkan konsep ini, kenaikan income terms of trade menunjukkan bahwa suatu negara dapat memperoleh jumlah impor yang lebih besar dengan dasar kenaikan nilai ekspornya. Bagi negara-negara yang sedang berkembang, selain variabel harga juga sangat penting untuk menilai terms of trade ini dengan mempertimbangkan volume ekspornya karena kenaikan harga ekspor yang tinggi mungkin diimbangi dengan turunnya volume ekspor. Perbaikan TOT dapat timbul sebagai akibat: (1) harga ekspor naik sedang harga impor tetap; (2) harga ekspor tetap sedang harga impor turun; (3) harga ekspor naik dengan proporsi yang lebih besar daripada naiknya harga impor; (4) harga ekspor turun dengan proporsi yang lebih kecil daripada turunnya harga impor. Mekanisme bagaimana TOT dapat berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riil adalah dapat dilihat dari sebuah mekanisme sederhana yaitu perbaikan TOT akan meningkatkan aliran modal masuk yang berasal dari perdagangan yang selanjutnya dapat mengapresiasi nilai tukar riil dan sebaliknya. Memburuknya TOT akan mengakibatkan permintaan valuta asing meningkat sehingga akan mendepresiasi nilai tukar riil. Terkait dengan jenis produksi yang diperdagangkan, maka secara umum nilai tukar perdagangan komoditi (commodity terms of trade atau net barter terms of trade) negara ­negara berkembang cenderung mengalami kemerosotan dari waktu ke waktu. Salah satu penyebab utamanya adalah sebagian besar atau bahkan semua kenaikan produktivitas yang terjadi di negara-negara maju dialirkan ke para pekerjanya dalam bentuk upah dan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi, sedangkan sebagian besar atau seluruh kenaikan produktivitas yang berlangsung di negara-negara berkembang diwujudkan sebagai harga-harga produk yang lebih murah (Salvatore, 1996 : 431). II.3. Nilai Tukar Riil (Real Exchange Rate) dan Pasar Valas Setiap negara memiliki sebuah mata uang yang menunjukkan harga-harga barang dan jasa. Pengertian nilai tukar valuta asing adalah ≈Exchange rate is the price of one nation »s money in terms of another nation »s money.à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   ≈The nominal exchange rate is usually called the exchange rateà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬  . Menurut definisi tersebut nilai tukar diartikan sebagai harga suatu mata uang terhadap mata uang negara lain. Nilai tukar nominal biasa disebut nilai tukar (exchange rate) (Pugel, 2004). Menurut Mankiw, nilai tukar nominal adalah harga relatif dimana seseorang dapat memperdagangkan mata uang suatu negara dengan mata uang lainnya (Mankiw, 2000: 200). Dengan menggunakan suatu indeks harga untuk Indonesia (P), sebuah indeks harga untuk harga-harga di luar negeri (P*) dan nilai tukar nominal antara rupiah dengan mata uang asing (e), akan dapat diukur nilai tukar riil keseluruhan antara Indonesia dengan negara-negara lain sebagai berikut : Nilai Tukar Riil = (e x P) / P* (III.3) Terdapat paling tidak 3 faktor utama yang mempengaruhi permintaan valuta asing. Pertama, faktor pembayaran impor. Semakin tinggi impor barang dan jasa, maka semakin besar permintaan terhadap valuta asing sehingga nilai tukar akan cenderung melemah. Kedua, faktor aliran modal keluar (capital outflow). Semakin besar aliran modal keluar, maka semakin besar permintaan valuta asing dan pada kelanjutannya akan memperlemah nilai tukar. Aliran modal keluar meliputi pembayaran hutang penduduk Indonesia (baik swasta dan pemerintah) kepada pihak asing dan penempatan dana penduduk Indonesia ke luar negeri. Ketiga , kegiatan spekulasi. Semakin banyak kegiatan spekulasi valuta asing yang dilakukan oleh spekulan, maka semakin besar permintaan terhadap valuta asing sehingga memperlemah nilai tukar mata uang lokal terhadap mata uang asing. Sementara itu, penawaran valuta asing dipengaruhi oleh dua faktor utama. Pertama, faktor penerimaan hasil ekspor. Semakin besar volume penerimaan ekspor barang dan jasa, maka semakin besar jumlah valuta asing yang dimiliki oleh suatu negara dan pada lanjutannya nilai tukar terhadap mata uang asing cenderung menguat atau apresiasi. Kedua, faktor aliran modal masuk (capital inflow). Semakin besar aliran modal masuk, maka nilai tukar akan cenderung semakin menguat. Aliran modal masuk tersebut dapat berupa penerimaan hutang luar negeri, penempatan dana jangka pendek oleh pihak asing (portofolio investment) dan investasi langsung pihak asing (foreign direct investment) (Simorangkir dan Suseno, 2004: 6). II.4. Financial Deepening Ukuran dari perkembangan intermediasi keuangan biasanya digunakan pengukuran indikator melalui kuantitas, kualitas, dan efisiensi dari jasa intermediasi keuangan (Calderon, 2002:5). Terdapat beberapa indikator untuk mengetahui seberapa besar tingkat perkembangan sektor keuangan salah satu diantaranya adalah rasio antara aset keuangan dalam negeri terhadap GDP (Muklis, 2005: 2). Menurut King dan Levine (1993), ≈Financial deepening means an increase in the money supply of financial assets in the economy, it is important to develop some measures of the widest range of financial assets, including money.à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬   Selain itu, King dan Levine merancang 4 ukuran dalam perhitungan perkembangan sektor keuangan. Pertama, ukuran dari kedalaman sektor keuangan adalah rasio dari kewajiban lancar (liquid liabilities) dari sistem keuangan terhadap GDP. Kewajiban lancar dalam hal ini adalah M3, namun apabila M3 tidak bisa didapatkan maka digunakan M2. Hal ini sejalan dengan IMF dalam database International Financial Statistic dan juga Slangor (1991:11). Kedua , adalah rasio dari deposit money bank domestic asset dibagi dengan deposit money bank domestic asset ditambah dengan central bank domestic asset yang menggambarkan institusi keuangan yang lebih spesifik. Ketiga , rasio kredit dari sektor swasta non keuangan dibagi dengan total kredit domestik. Keempat, adalah rasio kredit sektor swasta non-keuangan dibagi dengan GDP. Dua yang terakhir ini menggambarkan ukuran kuangan sektor dan tingkat pinjaman publik (King dan Levine, 1993: 4). Penggunaan rasio M2 terhadap GDP sebagai indikator financial deepening juga dibenarkan oleh King dan Levine, (1993: 5). Semakin kecil rasio tersebut maka semakin dangkal sektor keuangan suatu negara. Suatu negara dikatakan memiliki sektor keuangan yang dalam apabila M2 > 20% dari GDP dan dangkal apabila M2 III. METODOLOGI Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder dan merupakan data panel, mencakup periode 2000:Q1 2006:Q4 dan 6 negara yakni Indonesia dan 5 negara mitra dagang utamanya yaitu; Amerika Serikat, Jepang, Hongkong, Singapura dan Korea Selatan. Sumber utama data berasal dari International Financial Statistic yang diterbitkan oleh IMF. Teknik estimasi data panel digunakan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar pengaruh international reserves yang digunakan dalam rangka stabilisasi nilai tukar akibat terms of trade shock. Selain itu model ini juga diperunakan untuk melihat bagaimana peran financial deepening suatu negara dalam stabilisasi nilai tukar ini. Model persamaan yang diestimasi, dikembangkan dari penelitian (Aizenman dan Crichton, 2006), yakni: 1. Model international reserves mitigation terms : (III.4) 2. Model financial deepening mitigation terms : Dimana : RER adalah nilai tukar riil (Real Exchange Rate); ETOT adalah efektifitas nilai tukar perdagangan yang dinilai dari keterbukaan perdagangan (Trade Openness) yang dikalikan dengan nilai tukar perdagangan (Terms of Trade); RES adalah cadangan internasional (International reserves); FD adalah kedalaman sektor keuangan (Financial Deepening); i adalah crossection indentification; t adalah time series identification; ÃŽ µit adalah Koefisien pengganggu (error terms) 4. Varian pertama dari teknik estimasi data panel adalah pendekatan pooled least square (PLS) yang secara sederhana menggabungkan seluruh data time series dan cross section dan kemudian mengestimasi model dengan menggunakan metode ordinary least square (OLS) 5. Pendekatan kedua adalah fixed effect model (FEM) yang memperhitungkan kemungkinan perbedaan intercept antar individu yang ditunjukkan dengan kehadiran ÃŽ ±i pada persamaan (III.6). Secara teknis, model dengan fixed effect menambahkan dummy variables sebanyak N-1 buah ketika terdapat N individu. Pendekatan ketiga adalah random effect model (REM) yang dapat memperbaiki efisiensi proses least square dengan memperhitungkan error dari time series dan cross section. Berbeda dengan FEM, model REM memperlakukan intercept sebagai random variable dengan rata-rata ÃŽ ± dengan stokastik terms ÃŽ µit. Model random effect adalah variasi dari estimasi generalized least square (GLS). Model data panel untuk masing-masing varian teknik tersebut adalah sebagai berikut (Gujarati, 2003: 640): a. Pooled Least Square (III.6) b. Fixed Effect (III.7) c. Random Effect (III.8) Pada dasarnya penggunaan metode data panel memiliki beberapa keunggulan (Widarjono, 2005: 254). Pertama , panel data mampu memperhitungkan heterogenitas individu secara eksplisit dengan mengijinkan variabel spesifik individu. Kemampuan mengontrol heterogenitas 4 Definisi operasional variabel lebih detail dapat dilihat dilampiran IV.A. 5 Lihat: Baltagi, 2002 ; Gujarati, 2003 ; Maddala ; 1993 ; Pindyck dan Rubinfeld, 1998. individu ini pada gilirannya menjadikan data panel dapat digunakan untuk menguji dan membangun model perilaku yang lebih kompleks. Kedua, jika efek spesifik signifikan berkorelasi dengan variabel penjelas lainnya, penggunaan panel data akan mengurangi masalah omitted variables secara substansial. Ketiga , data panel mendasarkan diri pada observasi cross section yang berulang-ulang (time series), sehingga metode data panel cocok untuk digunakan sebagai study of dynamic adjustment. Keempat, tingginya jumlah observasi memiliki implikasi pada data yang lebih informatif, lebih variatif, kolinearitas antar variabel yang semakin berkurang dan peningkatan derajat kebebasan (degree of freedom), sehingga dapat diperoleh hasil estimasi yang lebih efisien. Kelima, data panel dapat digunakan untuk mempelajari model-model perilaku yang kompleks. Keenam, data panel dapat meminimalisir bias yang mungkin ditimbulkan oleh agregasi data individu. Keunggulan-keunggulan tersebut diatas memiliki implikasi pada tidak diperlukannya pengujian asumsi klasik dalam model data panel, sesuai apa yang ada dalam beberapa literatur yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini6. Dalam estimasi selanjutnya sebagai persyaratan estimasi regresi data panel, perlu di pilih penggunaan antara pooled least square, random effect model atau fixed effect model. Ketiga model tersebut akan berbeda dalam intrepetasi selanjutnya sehingga perlu dilakukan pemilihan model untuk memperoleh estimasi yang efisien sesuai dengan penggunaan regresi data panel. Pertama uji statistik F digunakan untuk memilih antara metode PLS tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih Fixed Effect. Kedua uji Lagrange Multiplier (LM) digunakan untuk memilih antara OLS tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih Random Effect. Terakhir , untuk memilih antara Fixed Effect Model (FEM) atau Random Effect Model (REM) digunakan uji yang dikemukakan oleh Hausman. Jika data time series lebih besar dibandingkan data cross section maka teknik efek acak (REM) kurang tepat atau tidak dapat dipakai untuk mengestimasi suatu model (Telisa, 2004:30)7. Dalam model penelitian ini teknik Random Effect Model (REM) tidak dapat digunakan, karena pada penelitian ini jumlah time series (28 time series) lebih besar dibandingkan dengan jumlah cross section (6 cross section). Oleh sebab itu pemilihan teknik estimasi dalam penelitian ini hanya memilih diantara dua teknik estimasi yaitu PLS (Pooled Least Square) atau FEM (Fixed Effect Model). Hasil pengujian menyarankan penggunaan Model Fixed Effect (Unrestricted) dalam penelitian ini. 6 Lihat: Maddala, 1998; Pindyck Rubinfeld, 1991; Greene, 2003; Gujarati, 2003; Widarjono, 2005. 7 Ibid IV. HASIL DAN ANALISA IV.1. Model International Reserves Mitigation Terms Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data dalam tabel III.1. koefisien determsinasi model International Reserves Mitigation Terms untuk keseluruhan negara adalah sebesar 0.999602 sedangkan untuk estimasi spesifik masing-masing negara adalah sebesar 0.999845. Artinya variasi variabel independen dalam model tersebut mampu menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen kedua model tersebut masing-masing sebesar 99,96% dan 99,98%. Secara simultan, variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam estimasi keseluruhan maupun estimasi spesifik memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan, kondisi tersebut dapat diketahui dari nilai Fyang masing-masing sebesar 57441.05 dan 57032.28. Nilai tersebut melebihi nilai kritis yang dipersyaratkan sesuai dengan F-tabel hingga taraf signifikansi 1%. Dengan demikian nilai F> Fyang berarti H ditolak. Secara parsial sebagaimana terdapat dalam tabel dibawah menunjukkan pengaruh masing-masing variabel bebas yang signifikan terhadap variabel nilai tukar riil (variabel dependen) pada estimasi secara keseluruhan. Namun untuk estimasi spesifik masing-masing negara hanya variabel effective terms of trade Indonesia, reserves mitigation terms Indonesia, Korea dan Amerika yang signifikan secara statistik mempengaruhi vriabel real exchange rate. Sumber: Hasil pengolahan Keterangan: * = Signifikan 1%; **=Signifikan 5%. Dari estimasi secara keseluruhan dalam tabel diatas terlihat bahwa pengaruh effective terms of trade (ETOT) terhadap real exchange rate (RER) adalah positif. Temuan empiris ini tidak sesuai dengan teori yang digunakan dalam penelitian, yaitu diharapkan bernilai negatif. Dengan asumsi bahwa peningkatan real exchange rate merupakan depresiasi nilai tukar domestik atau apresiasi nilai tukar mitra dagang, maka peningkatan pada effective terms of trade suatu negara terhadap negara-negara mitra dagangnya cenderung meningkatkan (depresiasi) real exchange rate. Rata-rata effective terms of trade keseluruhan negara obyek penelitian adalah 1,82, dengan perubahan pada real exchange rate rata-rata apresiasi sebesar 0,04%. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa elastisitas real exchange rate terhadap effective terms of trade shock ialah kenaikan effective terms of trade sebesar 1% mempengaruhi real exchange rate sebesar 0.28%. Dapat diartikan bahwa perbaikan effective terms of trade akan menyebabkan mata uang luar negeri mengalami apresiasi terhadap mata uang dalam negeri. Kondisi demikian menggambarkan bahwa keterbukaan perdagangan memiliki sisi negatif yaitu kecenderungan untuk melemahkan nilai tukar suatu negara ketika terjadi penurunan kinerja perekonomian negara mitra dagang tersebut dan dengan dukungan trade openness dan effective terms of trade yang semakin meningkat. Kondisi ini secara aktual dapat digambarkan pada resesi global pada saat ini yang hampir tidak sedikitpun negara yang menuai imbas negatif. Hampir seluruh perekonomian dunia termasuk nilai tukarnya cenderung terdepresiasi dan perekonomian berjalan lambat. Ketidaksesuaian hasil ini dimungkinkan juga dikarenakan kekuatan pasar yang mempengaruhi fluktuasi nilai tukar. Aliran modal jangka pendek, aliran keuangan internasional baik dari pemerintah maupun swasta yang erat kaitannya dengan keterbukaan perekonomian suatu negara memungkinkan berpengaruh pada nilai tukar riil. Besaran (magnitude) effective terms of trade dalam mempengaruhi pasar nilai tukar dapat dikatakan terlalu kecil jika dibandingkan dengan varabel-variabel lain yang berkaitan dengan nilai tukar. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi dapat dikemukakan bahwa peningkatan atau perbaikan pada effective terms of trade suatu negara berdampak pada peningkatan (apresiasi) nilai tukar riil negara lain sebagai mitra dagang utamanya atau penurunan (depresiasi) nilai tukar pada negaranya sendiri. Dapat dikatakan pula bahwa perbaikan yang terjadi pada effective terms of trade suatu negara menguntungkan negara mitra dagangnya dari sisi nilai tukar, namun tidak untuk negaranya sendiri. Hal ini merupakan efek negatif keterbuk